朝鲜时隔36年再开党代会的几大看点

North Korea, the world’s last Stalinist state, has invited the world’s media to Pyongyang this week to witness an important Party Congress that has not been held in 36 years, since before supreme leader Kim Jong Un was born.

世界上最后一个斯大林主义国家——朝鲜，已邀请世界各国媒体本周前来见证一场重要的党代会。朝鲜上一次召开党代会还是在36年前，彼时最高领袖金正恩(Kim Jong Un)还没有出生。

Here are a few things to look out for when the Congress opens on Friday:

以下是本周五党代会召开的时候，可以关注的几件事情。

Parades and pageantry

阅兵和盛况

The 7th Congress of the Worker’s Party of Korea is expected to be accompanied by an enormous spectacle, including mass choreographed performances, appearances by the “Young Marshall” Kim Jong Un and a military parade through the capital Pyongyang. The event is intended to present the reclusive nation as strong, independent and glorious and to legitimise the absolute rule of the 33-year-old Mr Kim. In the words of Korea expert Andrei Lankov, the pomp and pageantry “will be quite like watching the mating season of dinosaurs — it is a curiosity you don’t see anywhere else any more but it won’t necessarily tell us very much”.

预计朝鲜劳动党(Worker’s Party)第七次全国代表大会的召开将伴随着隆重的场面，包括大型编排演出，“年轻的元帅”金正恩的露面，以及在首都平壤举行的阅兵式。这场盛事旨在展现出这个封闭的国家的强大、独立和荣光，并将现年33岁的金正恩的专断统治合法化。用朝鲜半岛问题专家安德烈•兰科夫(Andrei Lankov)的话来说，观看这样盛大壮观的场面“很像是观看恐龙的交配季——这是你在任何地方都再也看不到的奇景，但它不一定能告诉我们很多事情。”

Signs of reform

改革迹象

Some North Korea watchers are hopeful Mr Kim will use the Congress to announce overarching reforms to the country’s moribund economy, which relies on aid, particularly from neighbouring China. Malnutrition plagues many of the country’s 25m population but markets have sprung up across the country and a new “middle class” with small amounts of expendable income has also emerged. Some analysts are hopeful the Congress will legitimise these realities. Others, including Mr Lankov, do not expect any concrete announcements to be made at the Congress itself but almost everyone believes changes are likely to happen regardless as Mr Kim moves towards the “reform and opening” path followed by China starting from the late 1970s.

一些朝鲜观察人士寄希望于金正恩将利用这次党代会，宣布对该国奄奄一息的经济进行全面改革。朝鲜经济依赖援助，尤其是来自邻国中国的援助。该国2500万人口中，有许多人受到营养不良的折磨，但市场在全国各地兴起，拥有少量可支配收入的新“中产阶级”也已出现。一些分析人士寄希望于本次党代会将这些事实合法化。而兰科夫等其他人则不指望本次党代会能够宣布什么具体事项，但几乎所有人都相信，随着金正恩朝着中国自上世纪70年代末走上的“改革开放”道路迈进，不管怎样，改变都可能即将发生。

Party over military

党高于军

One explanation for Mr Kim’s decision to hold the Congress now is his intention to boost the power and legitimacy of the Worker’s party established by his grandfather Kim Il Sung. The last Party Congress was held in 1980 and the highlight was Kim Il Sung’s announcement of his son, Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Un’s father), as his designated successor. When Kim Jong Il took power after his father’s death in 1994, he made a pact with the North Korean military that placed him at its head and downgraded the party’s power within the ruling structure. Since taking power in 2011, Kim Jong Un has struggled to shore up his legitimacy and assert control over the military. One way for him to do this is by returning the Worker’s party to a pre-eminent position within the political hierarchy.

对于金正恩现在举行党代会的决定，一个解释是他打算提高祖父金日成(Kim Il Sung)建立的劳动党的权力和合法性。上一届党代会是在1980年召开的，那次会议的重点是金日成宣布儿子金正日（Kim Jong Il，金正恩之父）为指定继承人。金正日在其父1994年逝世后掌权时，与朝鲜军方达成协议，军方将奉其为首，他将削弱劳动党在统治结构中的权力。金正恩在2011年掌权后，一直难以巩固他的合法性并维护对军队的控制权。金正恩要达到这个目的，一个方法就是恢复劳动党在朝鲜政治体系中的最高地位。

Appointments and titles

任命和头衔

The Congress, which was originally supposed to be held every five years, is supposed to elect members of the party’s leading institutions, although in practice decisions are made beforehand by the leadership and every motion is approved unanimously. The Congress also has the power to amend the party charter and define how the party relates to the country’s government, society, economy, military and culture. Analysts expect many younger officials will be appointed to replace the old guard of the party as part of Kim Jong Un’s efforts to boost support within the power structure.

原本应该每5年召开一次的党代会的目的，是选出劳动党领导机构成员，尽管实际上决定都是由领导层提前做出的，每一项动议都能获得一致通过。党代会还有权修改党章，定义党与政府、社会、经济、军事和文化的关系。分析人士预计，本次党代会将任命许多更年轻的官员，以替换党内的元老——这是金正恩在权力结构中争取更多支持的努力的一部分。

Missile launches

导弹发射

North Korea has stepped up efforts to build a nuclear-armed ballistic missile that can reach the US. In January, Pyongyang claimed it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb that could “wipe out the whole of the US territory”. In recent weeks, South Korean officials say the North has held several failed rocket launches in an apparent setback for Pyongyang’s ambitions. It is possible that more tests could be held during or immediately after the Congress since the nuclear deterrent is a central element in Mr Kim’s claims to legitimacy.

朝鲜已加紧步伐建造能够打到美国、装备核弹头的弹道导弹。今年1月，平壤方面声称已经成功地试验了可以“夷平整个美国领土”的氢弹。上月，韩国官员称，朝鲜进行的几次火箭发射都失败了——平壤的野心似乎遭遇挫折。在党代会举行期间或者紧接着党代会之后，朝鲜可能进行更多试验，因为核威慑是金正恩声索合法性的一个核心要素。

Foreign relations

对外关系

Any sign of a change in Pyongyang’s relations with its neighbour China will be watched by Washington and the rest of the region. The two countries used to refer to their relationship as being “as close as lips and teeth” but in recent years China has grown increasingly frustrated by North Korea’s belligerence and its insistence on developing nuclear weapons. Beijing is vocally opposed to this nuclear programme and has endorsed sanctions against the Kim regime but the Chinese government is also wary of doing anything that could prompt the disintegration of North Korea and potentially lead to a humanitarian disaster on its shared border.

华盛顿和该地区其他国家将密切关注，有无任何迹象显示朝鲜与其邻国中国的关系发生变化。中朝两国过去曾称彼此的关系是“唇齿相依”，但近年来，朝鲜的好战和执意发展核武器让中国日益不满。北京方面在口头上反对朝鲜核计划，并支持对金正恩政权进行制裁，但中国政府也保持着警惕，不做任何可能促使朝鲜解体，可能导致两国边境上发生人道主义灾难的事情。

International media coverage

国际媒体报道

With many of the world’s top media organisations visiting Pyongyang at the invitation of the North Korean government, readers should expect a barrage of global media attention over the next week. Since all foreign media activity in the country is tightly controlled and journalists are not permitted to venture anywhere without their official “minders”, these reports are likely to be limited in their ability to portray the true situation in the country.

在朝鲜政府的邀请下，将有许多世界一流媒体机构访问朝鲜，读者们将会在下周感受到全球媒体对此事的密集关注。由于所有外媒在该国的活动都受到严密控制，记者不得在没有官方“保卫人员”陪同的情况下去任何地方，这些报道描绘该国真实情况的能力可能是有限的。