安倍推迟增税 与央行行长现分歧

TOKYO — The Japanese prime minister and central bank governor have cooperated so closely over the last two years that their relationship is routinely likened to a three-legged race. Bound at the ankles and moving in sync, they have hustled toward their declared goal of ending economic stagnation.

东京——过去两年，日本首相和央行行长进行了十分密切的合作，以至于他们的关系经常被人比作二人三腿赛跑。脚踝绑在一起、动作同步，一起冲向他们所宣称的目标：结束经济停滞的局面。

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has taken such an outsize role in efforts to promote growth that some commentators slyly refer to Tokyo’s stimulus initiatives as “Kurodanomics.”

日本的中央银行日本银行(Bank of Japan)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)在推动经济增长方面扮演了异常重要的角色，有些评论人士甚至私下把日本政府的刺激举措称为“黑田经济学”(Kurodanomics)。

The description of Mr. Kuroda as the driving force behind Japan’s economic policy — known more commonly as Abenomics, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — seemed apt last month, when he pledged to inject even more central bank money into the economy.

日本当前经济政策更常见的提法是“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)，以日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的名字命名。将黑田东彦形容为日本经济政策背后推动力的说法，在上个月看来似乎恰如其分。当时，他承诺央行将为日本经济体系注入更多货币。

Yet the partners suddenly look out of step. Mr. Abe announced on Tuesday that he would postpone a planned tax increase that Mr. Kuroda had long supported. Higher taxes are vital to taming Japan’s national debt, Mr. Kuroda argues, and some are calling Mr. Abe’s reversal a stab in the back.

然而，这对伙伴突然开始显得步调不一。安倍晋三周二宣布，他将推迟实施一项增税计划，而黑田东彦一直对该计划表示支持。黑田东彦表示，提高税收对于缩小日本国债规模十分重要。一些人形容，安倍晋三的态度转变就像一支伤人暗箭。

“Prime Minister Abe has betrayed Kuroda and the Bank of Japan and chosen victory over scruples,” Soichiro Tahara, a prominent political commentator and journalist, wrote on Wednesday in a piece posted on the website of the Asahi Weekly magazine. In addition to delaying the second and final phase of the tax increase by a year and a half, to April 2017, Mr. Abe called a snap election for next month. Analysts believe his Liberal Democratic Party will win.

“安倍晋三首相背叛了黑田东彦和日本银行，选择了胜利而非大义，”周三，著名政治评论家和记者田原总一朗(Soichiro Tahara)在发表于《朝日周刊》(Asahi Weekly)网站上的一篇文章中说。除了把增税计划的第二和最后阶段推迟一年半，改期到2017年4月，安倍晋三还要求把选举提前到下个月。分析人士认为，他领导的自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)将会获胜。

Mr. Kuroda had lobbied hard for Mr. Abe to follow a long-agreed-to timetable to increase the national sales tax, which was meant to double to 10 percent, with the first step coming last April and the second next October. Many saw an implicit deal: Mr. Kuroda would print more money, supporting the economy, and Mr. Abe would raise taxes and tackle the debt.

各方很久之前就对提高日本消费税的时间表达成了一致，为了让安倍晋三遵守时间表，黑田东彦极力游说。按计划，日本消费税将增加一倍，提高到10%，政府在今年4月实施了第一步，并将于明年10月实施第二步。许多人原本认为，二人已有默契：黑田东彦将通过印钞来支持经济，而安倍晋三则会提高税收，从而缩减债务。

“Fiscal discipline is the responsibility of the government and Parliament, not the central bank,” Mr. Kuroda said at a news conference on Wednesday, seeking to dispel talk of a rift. Asked if he thought delaying the tax increase would have the intended effect of encouraging growth and inflation, he added, “There’s no point going into my personal views.”

“财政纪律是政府和国会的责任，不是央行的责任，”黑田东彦周三在新闻发布会上说。他希望能消除不和传闻。在被问到是否认为推迟提高消费税，能够达到鼓励增长和产生通货膨胀的目的时，他说，“了解我的个人观点没有意义。”

Mr. Kuroda was speaking after the central bank’s policy committee voted to leave its monetary settings unchanged. The decision was universally expected, after a surprise move the last time the committee met, on Oct. 31, when it approved a proposal by Mr. Kuroda to spend trillions of more yen on government bonds and other assets. The initiative is intended to keep borrowing costs low and encourage spending and investment.

在黑田东彦发表此番言论之前，央行政策委员会投票决定，不对货币政策做任何调整。这个决定并不让人意外，因为10月31日，该委员会上次会晤时曾做出了出人意料的举动。当时，它批准了黑田东彦的一项提议，决定再拿出数万亿日元用于购买政府债券和其他资产。此举意在保持较低的借贷成本，鼓励消费和投资。

Masamichi Adachi, a former central bank official who is now an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said it was inevitable that Mr. Abe’s wishes would prevail in any disagreement with Mr. Kuroda over policy. “Some people regarded it as a coalition, and in that sense he’s lost standing,” he said of Mr. Kuroda. “But he totally understands he’s under Abe, not an equal. At the end of the day, the B.O.J. has no independence from the Abe administration.”

前日本央行官员、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)经济学家足立正道(Masamichi Adachi)表示，当安倍晋三与黑田东彦在政策问题上出现分歧时，安倍晋三的愿望必然会占上风。“一些人认为这是一种联盟，从这种意义上来讲，他的地位的确降低了，”他谈论黑田东彦时说。“但他完全明白，他处于安倍晋三之下，两人不是平起平坐。说到底，日本银行并非独立于安倍晋三政府。”

Mr. Kuroda was appointed the Bank of Japan’s governor by Mr. Abe last year. Before that, he built his career at the Ministry of Finance, which has pushed for years to have the sales tax raised. With government revenue constrained by weak growth and deflation, Japan’s debt has grown to the equivalent of two and a half years of economic output, by far the highest level in the developed world.

安倍晋三去年任命黑田东彦担任日本银行行长，此前他一直在日本财务省(Ministry of Finance)供职。财务省多年来一直在推动消费税的上调。由于低增长和通货紧缩限制了政府的收入，日本政府的债务规模已经达到了年经济产出的2.5倍，远超其他发达国家的债务水平。

Within the ministry, Mr. Kuroda was known as an advocate of aggressive stimulus measures, something that set him apart from more cautious colleagues. Yet compared with others in Mr. Abe’s inner circle, which includes proponents of all-out government spending financed by the central bank, he has been a relative budget hawk.

在财务省内部，黑田东彦以倡导积极的刺激举措而著称，与较为谨慎的同事不同。但与安倍晋三核心圈内的其他人相比，黑田东彦在预算问题上相对比较强硬。核心圈子里的一些成员，支持政府在央行的资助下，大举花钱。

“Maybe it’s because he still carries some Finance Ministry DNA, but he’s aware that if the government loses all financial constraint, there’s a risk of a bond-market plunge,” said a former finance ministry official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing his former colleague.

一名前财务省官员表示，“这或许是因为他有一些财务省的DNA，但他知道，如果政府失去了所有的财政约束，债券市场就会有暴跌的风险。”为了避免招致前同事的反感，这名官员要求匿名。

Mr. Kuroda said on Wednesday that he believed the Japanese economy was still fundamentally on a path to growth, despite government data released on Monday that showed that the country had slipped into recession in the third quarter.

黑田东彦周三表示，他认为日本经济基本上仍然处于增长期，尽管周一公布的政府数据显示，日本经济第三季度陷入衰退。

Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent, the data showed. That followed a 7.3 percent plunge in the previous quarter, after the first stage of the sales tax increase. The blow to consumer spending from the increase led to the recession and persuaded Mr. Abe to delay the second phase.

数据显示，日本年化国内生产总值(GDP)收缩1.6%。在实施了第一阶段的增税计划后，第二季度的年化GDP下滑7.3%。增税举措给消费性支出造成冲击，结果导致经济衰退，促使安倍晋三推迟了第二阶段的增税计划。

Mr. Kuroda now appears to be focused on holding Mr. Abe to a pledge to stick to the new 2017 timetable no matter what obstacles the economy throws up. The plan is to balance the budget, excluding interest payments on the debt, by 2020. Many economists say that is unrealistic, but Mr. Kuroda said on Wednesday that it was crucial to try.

黑田东彦目前似乎在全力确保安倍晋三信守承诺，无论经济形势中出现什么阻碍，都要坚持新的2017时间表。日本政府计划，在不计偿付利息的情况下，到2020年实现预算平衡。很多经济学家称该计划不现实，但黑田东彦在周三表示，试一试很重要。

“The government has laid out a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan and has set a clear target,” he said. “I hope the government follows this plan diligently and creates a sustainable fiscal structure.”

“政府已经公布了中期财政整顿计划，设定了明确的目标，”他说。“我希望政府能坚持这一计划，树立可持续的财政结构。”