日本购岛危害:中日关系乃至全球经济

The Japanese government's attempt to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands has the potential to derail global economic recovery, according to academics.

根据学者的说法，日本政府企图将钓鱼岛“国有化”有可能拖累全球经济复苏。

Relations between China and Japan soured after Japan moved to "purchase" part of the Diaoyu Islands in September. China claims the islands are part of its territory.

日本9月份实施“购买”钓鱼岛群岛的部分岛屿后中日关系恶化。中国声称这些岛屿是其领土的一部分。

"The world economy is quite unstable already and the world is turning its eye to east Asia for growth. But clearly, the dispute has had an adverse impact on global recovery," said Yang Mu, a senior researcher at the National University of Singapore.

“世界经济已经相当不稳定，世界正把目光聚集在东亚的经济增长上。但显然，这次争端对全球经济复苏产生了不利的影响，” 新加坡国立大学高级研究员杨沐说。

"The global economy is already suffering from lower aggregate demand. This is particularly true in the U.S. and the eurozone. The global aggregate demand would go down if there is a further slowdown in the Chinese and Japanese economies," said Jesus P. Estanislao, former Philippines secretary of finance and chairman of the Institute of Corporate Directors.

全球经济已经遭遇疲软，特别是美国和欧元区。如果中日经济进一步放缓，那么全球总需求就会下降，菲律宾前财政部秘书长和公司董事会主席Jesus P. Estanislao说。

Other east Asian economies will also be affected, as they have large trade relationships with both China and Japan, Estanislao said.

其他东亚经济体也将受到影响，因为他们与中国和日本有着大量的贸易往来，Estanislao说。

Under the circumstances of the global economic downturn, Asian countries are eager to strengthen regional cooperation. Many countries hope to offset negative effects from European and American markets through tariff-free barriers and cross-state logistics and cooperation.

在全球经济低迷的情况下，亚洲国家都渴望加强区域合作。很多国家都希望通过免除关税障碍和跨国物流与合作来抵消来自欧洲和美国市场的负面影响。

Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, a government think tank, said the dispute has put regional supply chains at risk.

国家信息中心的研究员、政府智囊团成员张茉楠说，争端已经把区域供应链置于风险之中。

Both China and Japan are important sources of semi-manufactured goods in Asia, Zhang said, adding that the ripple effect will spread and put pressure on the world economy.

中国和日本是亚洲半成品的重要来源，张茉楠补充说，涟漪效应会扩散，并对世界经济造成压力。

The World Bank has lowered its growth expectations for the region, possibly in response to the dispute. On Monday, it slashed its 2012 growth forecast for developing countries in east Asia and the Pacific to 7.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in 2011.

可能是对争端的回应，世界银行已经降低了该地区的增长预期。周一亚太地区发展中国家2012年经济增长预测已经消减为7.2％，低于2011年的8.3％。

"In a fragile external environment, the economy in east Asia and that Pacific region is continuing to slow down," the bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Data Monitor.

“在脆弱的外部环境下，亚太地区经济继续放缓，”世界银行在其最新的亚太地区数据监控中表示。

The new forecast is down from its May prediction of 7.6 percent growth for the region.

新的预测低于5月份预测的该地区有7.6％的增长。

"Should conditions in Europe deteriorate sharply, no developing region will be spared. With a major crisis, GDP growth could drop by more than 2 percent in 2013," the World Bank said.

世界银行说：“如果欧洲情况急剧恶化，发展中国家也难以幸免。这次重大危机使得2013年的GDP增长率可能下降2％以上。”

The dispute has already taken an economic toll.

此次争端已经对经济造成了损失。