时事新闻:铁矿石价格暴跌冲击澳大利亚

Australia's central BAnk policy makers are grappling with a new economic challenge for the resource-rich country: plummeting commodity prices.

澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)的决策者目前正在努力应对这个有着丰富资源的国家所面临的新经济挑战：大宗商品价格暴跌。

The decline in the value of a ton of iron ore to levels last seen in October 2009 has caught the attention of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, but it's still unlikely to prompt the bank into unexpectedly cutting rates at its meeting on Tuesday. But the effect that an unchecked slide in export revenue could have on the Australian economy will become a more important factor in the board's thinking in the months ahead.

铁矿石价格跌至2009年10月的水平，此事引起了澳大利亚央行的关注，但不太可能促使其在周二的会议上意外降息。不过，澳大利亚出口收入一路下滑对该国经济可能产生不利影响，这将成为澳大利亚央行理事会未来几个月考虑的更重要因素。

'Things have changed a lot in the last month,' said Warwick McKibbin, an economist and a member of the RBA board for a decade until July last year, in an interview. 'I now have further downside in my forecasts for interest rates.'

澳大利亚央行前理事会成员、经济学家麦基宾(Warwick McKibbin)接受采访时说，过去一个月情况出现了很大改变，我个人现在认为利率有进一步下降的可能。直到去年7月之前，在10年的时间里，麦基宾一直是该央行理事会成员。

Mr. McKibbin thinks that the pace of further declines in commodity prices will overtake the risk of inflation, or the strength of the currency, as the RBA's 'key issue' in the months ahead when it weighs whether to start cutting rates again.

麦基宾认为，大宗商品价格进一步下跌的速度将超过通胀风险或货币走势，成为未来几个月澳大利亚央行考虑是否开始再次降息的关键问题。

The RBA has put the brakes on rate cuts since June, when it finished a period of pruning 1.25 percentage points from its benchmark lending rate, which now rests at 3.50%. The RBA has resisted pressure to cut rates further, partly because Australia's resource exports have supported growth and given Gov. Glenn Stevens a platform to declare the 'glass is half full' for the economy.

自今年6月刚刚完成一轮降息周期以来，澳大利亚央行便对降息踩下了刹车。在那轮周期中，澳大利亚基准贷款利率累计下调了1.25个百分点，至目前的3.50%。此后，澳大利亚一直顶住进一步降息的压力，原因之一是该国资源出口不仅对经济增长起到了支撑的作用，而且也让澳大利亚央行行长史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)有机会声称，澳大利亚经济这个玻璃杯是半满的。

Most experts agree that Tuesday's board meeting of the RBA is unlikely to produce a cut in interest rates, with unemployment still low at around 5.2% and the economy still on track to grow an annual average rate of around 3.5%.

大多数专家一致认为，鉴于澳大利亚失业率仍徘徊在5.2%的较低水平，且该国经济仍有望以年均约3.5%的速度增长，因此澳大利亚央行不太可能在周二理事会会议上做出降息的决定。

'Our view remains that the cash rate will still fall further, but it may not be till closer to Christmas,' said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital.

澳大利亚基金公司AMP Capital首席经济学家奥利弗(Shane Oliver)说，我们依旧认为会进一步下调利率，但可能在接近圣诞节的时候才会下调。

Of 15 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, all expect the RBA to hold rates firm despite the sudden slump in commodity prices. Market pricing shows a slim 10% chance of the RBA cutting rates.

据《华尔街日报》的调查显示，受访的15位经济学家全都认为，尽管大宗商品价格骤然下跌，但澳大利亚央行将维持利率不变。市场定价显示，澳大利亚央行降息的几率并不大，仅为10%。

That could change fast, however, if prices for coal and iron ore continue to plummet.

但如果煤炭和铁矿石价格进一步大幅下跌，降息几率可能就会迅速改变。

Nomura estimates that the mining and resources industries accounted for 50% of growth in the economy in the past year, and 70% of exports. BHP Billiton's -0.33% decision to shelve an estimated US$30 billion project to expand a copper and uranium mine in South Australia has added to fears that the mining investment boom has already peaked.

野村证券估计，过去一年矿业和资源行业占经济增长的50%，占出口的70%。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)原本打算扩大南澳大利亚州的一个铜铀矿，投资规模估计为300亿美元。该公司现已决定暂停这个项目，让人更加担心矿业投资潮已经见顶。

If so, it won't be long before the RBA has to act even if the Australian dollar falls to below parity with the U.S. greenback, a drop that would be welcomed by industries such as tourism and manufacturing, which haven't seen the benefits of what policy makers still call a 'once in a century' mining boom.

如果真的已经见顶，那么即使澳元汇率降至1美元以下，不久之后澳大利亚央行也将不得不采取行动。旅游和制造等行业没有从决策者仍然称为“百年一遇”的矿业投资潮中获利，它们乐见澳元跌破1美元的水平。

In previous slumps, Australia's currency has suffered dramatic swings. In 2008, when commodity prices crashed-iron ore fell by about 60%-Australia's dollar fell 40% in value against the U.S. greenback in a matter of weeks to a low around US$0.60. The RBA was forced to intervene by buying the currency directly in support of fiscal stimulus from the government.

澳元汇率在以往矿业低迷期间曾经历大起大落。2008年，大宗商品价格崩盘，铁矿石跌幅达到60%左右，在短短几周内，澳元即对美元贬值40%，跌至0.60美元左右的低位。澳大利亚央行被迫直接收购澳元进行干预来支持政府的财政刺激。

But the RBA recently said that the Aussie dollar may not follow commodity prices lower as it did in 2008, because of demand for the currency and Australia's triple-A-rated sovereign bonds that has come from the world's central banks over the past year. That in turn has made managing the currency, which is trading around US$1.03, tricky for policy makers.

但澳大利亚央行最近表示，澳元可能不会像2008年那样跟随大宗商品价格走低，因为过去一年世界多家央行对澳元和澳大利亚AAA评级的主权债券都有强烈的需求。而这又加大了决策者管理汇率的难度。目前澳元在1.03美元左右。

'In terms of the economy, one of the things that has hurt far more than interest rates is the strength of the currency,' said Mike Smith, chief executive of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., in an interview. 'I think the Reserve Bank was probably surprised by the amount of Aussie dollars purchased by sovereign wealth funds and other central banks.'

澳新银行集团(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.)首席执行长史密斯(Mike Smith)接受采访时说，汇率走强等因素对经济的伤害远远大于利率，我认为，主权财富基金和其他央行所购澳元的数量可能超出了澳大利亚央行的意料。

Adding to the RBA's dilemma is the government's pledge to erase a 44 billion Australian dollar (US$45.3 billion) budget deficit by the end of the fiscal year. That promise to voters made by the Labor-led administration of Prime Minister Julia Gillard is now likely to require additional fiscal measures and put pressure on the RBA to use rates to support economic growth.

让澳大利亚央行更加左右为难的是，政府承诺将在本财年削减440亿澳元(453亿美元)的财政赤字。这是总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)以工党为首的政府对选民的承诺。目前来看，这一承诺可能需要政府采取进一步的财政措施才能兑现，同时也有可能使央行不得不采用利率手段来支撑经济增长。

A spokeswoman for the RBA declined to comment.

澳大利亚央行发言人拒绝置评。