欧元前景愈加不妙

【英文原文】

Euro Risks Accumulate
The euro is really taking a beating Wednesday as concerns percolate about Greece and a ratings downgrade for Portugal, among other euro-zone risks.

Already analysts are talking about the euro potentially falling as low as $1.30 in the coming days, after the currency hit a 10-month low of $1.33 earlier in the day. The euro is clearly being hit by rhetoric flowing out of European officials ahead of the two-day summit of EU leaders that kicks off Thursday in Brussels.

Now ordinarily, we would discount that as nothing but typical mumbo-jumbo coming ahead of some sort of classic European fudge on Greece. But as ING analysts point out, the rhetoric has key implications for international investors.

'What is an international investor to think having fled from the dollar to the safe haven of the euro only last year,' they ask. On that front, they note that there's evidence of a retreat from euro-zone assets. Portfolio-flow data from the European Central BAnk suggest the international community's love affair with euro-zone securities is waning.

'Foreign demand for euro-zone debt peaked at around 550 billion euro in the summer of 2007. As of January 2010, foreigners had only bought a meager 82 billion euro of euro-zone debt as a 12 month sum and were net sellers in both December and January.'

Tough talking from German officials isn't helping. According to reports, Germany requires several criteria be met before it agrees to some sort of IMF-EU bailout for Greece. One idea is that aid should come only after Greece has been shut out of the capital markets. There are huge risks to this strategy, though, for the euro. 'Is Germany waiting for a failed bond auction and Greece being shut out of private placements and syndicated deals before being prepared to participate in a package?,' ask the ING analysts.

None of it right now adds up to a pretty picture for the euro, which is already down more than 6% this year against the dollar. 'It seems increasingly likely that the E.U. will embrace the worst of all worlds for the euro, and be doubly damned by choosing a combination of an IMF and EU emergency facility for Greece,' notes Alan Ruskin at RBS. Ruskin had a mid-year $1.28 forecast for the euro against the dollar and was looking at $1.24 in mid 2011. 'If contagion in the euro area takes hold, and Greece is a precursor to a Portugal bail-out and so forth, then that view is clearly conservative and thoughts of $1.15 or $1.10 come to the fore.'

【中文译文】

欧元前景愈加不妙

周三，随着投资者对希腊危机以及葡萄牙评级下调等风险因素的担忧扩散，欧元遭遇了迎头痛击。

现在已经有分析师认为欧元会在未来几天跌至兑1.30美元的低位。周三早些时候，欧元一度触及1.33美元的10个月低点。为期两天的欧盟领导人峰会定于周四在布鲁塞尔召开，欧元周三的走势显然是被欧盟官员的讲话拖下了水。

一般情况下，我们会认定他们的讲话不过是虚张声势，后面接下来还是些针对希腊问题的典型欧洲式空谈。但是正如荷兰商业银行(ING BANK)分析师所指出的那样，这样的讲话为国际投资者提供了关键暗示。

他们问道，一个去年才因避险因素抛售美元转投欧元的国际投资者在想些什么呢？这些分析师指出，从这方面考虑，有证据表明在欧元区资产上的投资出现了缩水。欧洲央行(European Central Bank)提供的投资数据显示，国际社会对欧元区证券的投资兴致是越来越淡薄了。

2007年夏天时境外投资者对欧元区债券的投资规模达到了5,500亿欧元的峰值；截至2010年1月，境外投资者在之前12个月中累计购买的欧元区债券仅价值820亿欧元。他们在12月和1月份成为了债券的净卖家。

德国官员措辞严厉的讲话不会给欧元带来帮助。据报导，德国称若要其同意以国际货币基金组织(IMF)和欧盟联手向希腊提供帮助的方案，就要满足一些先决条件。其一是只有希腊被隔阻于资本市场之外，救援才可能实施。不过对于欧元来说这一策略蕴含了重大风险。荷兰商业银行分析师说，德国人是不是想要等到出现债券拍卖失败、希腊与非公开配售以及银团贷款彻底无缘后才肯准备拿出救助方案呢？

这一切无疑都会令欧元前景变得更加黯淡；今年迄今为止欧元兑美元的跌幅已经超过了6%。供职于苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的鲁斯金(Alan Ruskin)说，现在看来欧盟越来越有可能放手让欧元迎来最猛烈的打击，同时若IMF-EU拿出针对希腊的联合救助方案则会使事态雪上加霜。鲁斯金预计今年年中欧元将跌至1.28美元，2011年年中时将跌至1.24美元。如果欧元区的危机传染病能够得到控制，而且在首先救助了希腊后还有葡萄牙等国在排队等待救济，那么我对欧元汇价的走势预测就显然是太保守了，有关欧元或跌至1.15美元、甚至1.10美元的说法可能会浮出水面。