时事新闻:中国第三季度外汇储备继续增长

【英文原文】

China Posts Growth In Foreign Exchange
China's massive reserves of foreign exchange continued to swell in the third quarter, figures published by the central bank show, an indication that foreign money is still flowing into an economy that rebounded quickly from the global crisis.

The People's Bank of China said its foreign-exchange reserves, which were already by far the world's largest, climbed to $2.273 trillion at the end of September, from $2.132 trillion at the end of June.

China's central bank adds to the reserves when it buys up foreign currency coming into the country -- either as export earnings or investment flows -- in exchange for the local currency, the yuan. Because China reliably runs a trade surplus and keeps its currency largely fixed against the U.S. dollar, the reserves have grown steadily.

Although China doesn't publish breakdowns of its foreign-exchange reserves by currency, dollars are widely believed to make up roughly two-thirds of them. There is little evidence that dominant position is changing.

The large increase in China's reserves means it still has to find somewhere to put tens of billions of dollars in foreign currency every month. U.S. Treasury debt has been the default option. Chinese officials have this year publicly worried about what U.S. fiscal and monetary policies might do to their holdings. But those statements haven't been matched by a major change in China's actual investment strategy, mostly because there are few safe investment alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds.

【中文译文】

中国央行公布的数字显示，中国庞大的外汇储备在第三季度继续增长，表明外资仍在流入这个从全球金融危机中迅速回升的经济体中。

中国央行说，外汇储备在9月底达到了2.273万亿美元，高于6月底时的2.132亿美元。中国的外汇储备额在当时就已经位居世界第一。

中国央行在以人民币购买以出口收益或投资流入的方式进入到中国的外汇时，外汇储备就会增加。因为中国持续的贸易顺差和基本上维持对美元的固定汇率，外汇储备一直稳步增长。

虽然中国没有按货币种类公布外汇储备明细，但普遍的看法是美元约占其外汇储备的三分之二。没有什么证据表明这种主导地位发生了变化。

中国外汇储备的大幅增加意味着它仍要为每月新增的数百亿美元外汇找到去处。美国国债一直是必选项。中方官员今年公开对美国的财政和货币政策可能影响到其持有的美国资产表示了担忧。但是，这些表态并没有带来中国实际投资策略的重大改变，主要是因为很少有安全的投资选择可以替代美国国债。

【英文原文】

The $141 billion increase in reserves in the third quarter was substantially larger than China's trade surplus for the quarter of $39.27 billion. Such a gap is usually taken as an indication that money also is coming in from other sources. It follows an even larger surge of $177.87 billion in the reserves in the second quarter, which came as investor confidence in China returned and signs of capital flight in earlier months reversed.

China's trade surplus has narrowed this year, as its exports were depressed by the collapse in global demand; imports recovered on the back of the government's sweeping stimulus program. Separate data issued Wednesday showed the monthly trade surplus for September narrowing to $12.93 billion from $15.71 billion in August. Exports were down 15.2% from a year earlier but the decline in imports narrowed to just 3.5%. The smaller trade surplus, if it is sustained, would tend to slow the rate that foreign-exchange reserves accumulate.

There are plenty of reasons for the flood of funds into China by investors or companies indicated by Wednesday's reserves data. The Shanghai stock market, though off its highs earlier this year, is still one of the best-performing in the world, and Chinese property prices have been rising for several months. One indicator of retail-investor interest in Chinese assets -- the amount of Chinese currency held by Hong Kong residents -- is also posting gains. Figures from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority show yuan deposits in the territory rose every month since May, after a long stretch of declines.

【中文译文】

自1969年以来，诺贝尔经济学奖以纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔(Alfred Nobel)的名义每年颁发，但不是五个传统奖项之一。今年是首次有女性获得这个“新诺贝尔奖”。

奥斯特罗姆教授表示，她的第一反应是“极大的惊讶与感激”。

她补充道：“有许多、许多人付出了艰巨的努力，被选中获得这一奖项是一种巨大的荣誉，我仍有点处于震惊之中。”

当今，很多人可能认为经济学家根本不值得表彰，在此之际，今年的诺贝尔经济学奖颁发给一个与金融危机无关的经济学分支，从而不太可能像去年那样引发争议。去年的诺贝尔经济学奖得主是美国普林斯顿大学的保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)，他是一位宏观经济学家，曾用凯恩斯主义的观点评述此次世界经济危机。

今年上述两位经济学家获奖，是因为他们研究了这样一个问题：在不存在详细合约或法律框架的情况下，如何强制执行规则？他们的研究成果有助于推动人们对一些问题的理解，比如：与更简单的理论相反，为什么自然资源并不总是会退化？为什么大公司存在，但同时也会外包某些业务？

【英文原文】

Prof Ostrom has challenged the conventional “tragedy of the commons” theory, arguing that societies and groups regularly devise rules and enforcement mechanisms which stop the degradation of nature. The traditional theory holds that pollution and depletion of resources would occur because individuals did not recognise their effect on others. However, she argued that people could manage resources tolerably well without rules imposed by the authorities if rules evolved over time, entitlements were clear, conflict resolution measures were available, and an individual's duty to maintain the common resource was in proportion to the benefits from exploiting it.

Active participation in setting and enforcing rules was the key feature of such success stories, she found. Prof Williamson also studied economic governance, but within companies. Since much of economic life happens within organisations, he examined how decisions were made, rather than just the decision that was taken. That helped him develop a theory of why companies exist – they can be efficient at resolving conflict, via the use of hierarchy.

He also found that where transactions were complex, companies were more efficient than individual contracts would be.

The theory helps to explain the shifting boundaries of companies; why they often abuse their power; and why large companies evolve in certain industries.

【中文译文】

第三季度1,410亿美元的外汇储备增加额远远高于同期392.7亿美元的贸易顺差。这种差额往往被视为资金也来自其他渠道的信号。中国的外汇储备在第二季度增幅更大，为1778.7亿美元，这要是由于中国投资者信心的恢复和此前几个月里资本外逃的现象出现了逆转。

中国的贸易顺差今年已经在收窄，原因是全球需求下降打击了出口，而政府的的刺激计划导致了进口的复苏。周三发布的另一项数据显示，9月份贸易顺差从8月份的157.1亿美元下降到129.3亿美元。出口比上年同期下降15.2%，但进口降幅缩小到只有3.5%。贸易顺差减少的情况如果持续下去，外汇储备增加的速度可能会放缓。

周三公布的外汇储备数据显示有大量投资者或企业的资金进入了中国，这其中有很多原因。上海股市尽管脱离了今年早些时候的高点，但仍是全球表现最好的股市之一，而中国房地产的价格指数已连续数月上涨。作为一项反映个人投资者对中国资产兴趣的指标，香港居民持有人民币的金额也出现了增长。来自香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)的数字显示，在经过了长期的下降后，香港本地的人民币存款额自5月份以来逐月上升。