中国铁路外交在拉丁美洲频繁受挫
LUCAS DO RIO VERDE, Brazil — The ambitions are dizzying, some of the grandest in Latin America since thousands of laborers perished building railways through the forbidding jungles of Brazil more than a century ago.
巴西贝尔德河畔卢卡斯——它们堪称逾一个世纪前成千上万的铁路建设劳工丧生于险恶的巴西丛林以来拉丁美洲最宏大的一些项目，其中的万丈雄心令人目眩。
China has sought to build a “dry canal” in the form of a railway across Colombia, linking the Caribbean to the Pacific. Chinese investors announced another huge venture in Honduras, two ports and a 375-mile railroad from sea to sea. Then this June, China announced yet another megarailway — nearly 10 times as long — across Brazil and Peru, stretching from one coast of South America to the other.
中国希望打造一条“陆上通道”，通过穿越哥伦比亚的铁路线来把加勒比海和太平洋连接起来。中国投资者还宣布将在洪都拉斯进行大型工程，用两座港口和一条375英里长（约合600公里）的铁路线将这两片海域打通。到了今年6月，中国宣布了又一个超级铁路项目，是前述长度的近10倍。它将穿越巴西和秘鲁，贯通南美的东西海岸。
But across the region, one large Chinese rail venture after another has come crashing against the hard realities of Latin American politics, resistance from environmental groups, and a growing wariness toward China. While China boasts of its rail initiatives around the world, it has often been stymied here in Latin America, reflecting how even China’s formidable ambitions have limits.
然而，在这片大陆的各个地方，中国一个接一个的大型铁路项目开始遭遇拉丁美洲冰冷的政治现实、环境团体的抵制，以及对中国越来越深的警惕。尽管中国总是夸耀它在世界各地的铁路项目，但在拉丁美洲却频繁受阻，由此折射出，即便是中国的勃勃雄心也会面临限制。
Now, new worries over China’s economic growth are raising more doubts about the blitz of what China calls its “railroad diplomacy,” as parts of Latin America reel from their dependence on China.
眼下，在拉丁美洲的不少地区头疼于自身对中国的依赖之际，对中国经济增长状况的新担忧令其口中的“铁路外交”攻势遭受了更多的质疑。
The enormous twin-ocean railroad across Brazil and Peru, in particular, “will be a crucial test of China’s mettle as a global power and the potential for greater acquiescence in South America to the designs that China has on our resources,” said José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a Brazilian scholar.
尤其是规模庞大的穿越巴西和秘鲁的两大洋铁路计划，“将成为一次关键的考验，衡量的是中国作为一个全球大国的本事，以及中国对南美资源的筹谋会得到我们更大接受度的可能性，”巴西学者若泽·欧斯塔基奥·迪尼兹·阿尔维斯(José Eustáquio Diniz Alves)表示。
“We’re experiencing the downside of our overreliance on China now that the opaque Chinese economy is in flux,” he added. “Imagine what will happen if this railway somehow advances, bringing with it environmental devastation and even more leverage for China in our affairs.”
“鉴于扑朔迷离的中国经济目前处于不稳定状态，我们正在经历对它过度依赖的负面影响，”他还说。“假如这条铁路得以推进，会对环境带来毁灭，给中国送上插手我们事务的更大筹码。想象一下，那会是怎样一番情形？”
More than 100 years ago, Americans were among the foreigners who rolled into the heart of South America with ambitious plans to build railways. The ruins of their grand designs for the Brazilian Amazon, called the Devil’s Railway because of the thousands of workers who died building it, are a testament to the dangers of relying too heavily on commodity exports.
一百多年前，美国等外部势力怀着修建铁路的雄心开进了南美腹地。他们对巴西亚马孙丛林的这一宏伟蓝图被称为“魔鬼铁路”(Devil’s Railway)，得名于因此消逝的成千上万条生命。它的遗迹说明了过于依赖大宗商品出口的危险性。
Officials slowly abandoned the railroad, parts of which are now swallowed by jungle, after rubber prices collapsed generations ago. These days, China is the one suffering an array of setbacks in railroad projects across the region, at a time when the demand for Latin America’s commodities — like soybeans, iron ore, copper and oil — has slowed.
数十年前橡胶价格崩盘之后，官方逐渐遗弃了这条铁路，部分路段如今隐没在了丛林里。到了现在，当拉丁美洲大宗商品——大豆、铁矿石、铜和石油等——面临需求放缓之时，在穿越该地区的铁路项目上遭遇重挫的变成了中国。
Last November, Mexico abruptly canceled a Chinese-led bid to build a $4.3 billion high-speed rail system after accusations that the Mexican government had favored contractors who were part of the consortium.
去年11月，墨西哥突然取消了中国中标的高铁建设项目，此前，有人指控该国政府偏袒了中标方当中的承包商。该项目涉及43亿美元的投资。
In Honduras, two years have passed since Chinese investors announced the railway linking the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific. Yet Miguel Servellón, an official with the state agency promoting the project, said it was “still a long way from happening,” listing obstacles like a complex environmental approval process.
在洪都拉斯，中国投资者两年前就宣布要修建一条连接加勒比海和太平洋的铁路。但在负责促进该项目的官方机构任职的官员米格尔·塞韦利翁(Miguel Servellón)称，“离动工还有很长的路要走”，并列举了面临的障碍，如复杂的环境审批程序。
In another project aimed at finding an alternative to the Panama Canal, the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, said four years ago that Colombia and China had a plan that was “quite advanced” to build a railway linking the Pacific to the Caribbean. But the mood has changed considerably since then.
四年前，哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)称，哥伦比亚和中国制定了一个“相当成熟”的计划，打算修建一条连接太平洋和加勒比海的铁路。该项目意在找到一条替代巴拿马运河的通道。但时至今日，人们的情绪已经有了很大的改变。
“It’s a subject that was mentioned in 2011 and subsequently had minimal relevance,” said Daniela Sánchez, the director of the Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce.
“那是2011年提到的事情，后来几乎销声匿迹，”哥伦比亚-中国商会(Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce)会长达妮埃拉·桑切斯(Daniela Sánchez)说。
In Venezuela, Chinese companies actually broke ground on a 290-mile high-speed railway, part of a grandiose plan by President Hugo Chávez, to “rebalance” the population away from the coast.
在委内瑞拉，中国公司修建一条290英里长的高铁的项目的确动工了。该项目是委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)为将人口从沿海地区“转移”而制定的宏伟计划的一部分。
But while Venezuela’s government boasted that passenger service would start in 2012, the project has been fraught for years with work stoppages and money shortfalls on the Venezuelan side. The Chinese authorities say that more than half of the railway has been built, though Venezuelan news media reported in June that work camps on the route had been abandoned.
委内瑞拉政府曾夸口称，将在2012开通客运服务，但多年来，该项目一直深受停工和委内瑞拉资金不足的困扰。中国当局称项目已完工过半，而委内瑞拉新闻媒体6月报道称，沿线的工地已被废弃。
“The process would be faster if we had abundant capital,” Liang Enguang, deputy general manager of the China Railway Engineering Corporation’s Venezuelan unit, told reporters.
“如果我们有充足的资金，进程就会更快，”中国铁路工程总公司委内瑞拉分公司副总经理梁恩广（音）对记者表示。
An even bigger project floated by a Chinese telecommunications tycoon, a 172-mile canal across Nicaragua, intended as a rival to the Panama Canal, has been met with broad skepticism about its feasibility as well as protests by farmers living along the proposed route.
中国的一家电信巨头还提出了一个更大的项目，即修一条172英里长的运河贯穿尼加拉瓜，使其与巴拿马运河竞争。但该项目遭到了生活在规划线路沿线的农民的抗议，其可行性也广受质疑。
Despite the obstacles, China has pressed ahead with the twin-ocean railway across Brazil and Peru, building on trade between China and Latin America that surged to $285 billion in 2014, from $12 billion in 2000, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.
尽管面临阻碍，中国仍在以中国与拉美的贸易为基础，推进贯通巴西和秘鲁的两洋铁路项目。来自国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的数据显示，中国与拉美之间的贸易额已从2000年的120亿美元，增至2014年的2850亿美元。
Lucas do Rio Verde, a farming outpost of 70,000 people, could find itself almost in the middle of the proposed 3,300-mile route, raising hopes that it could be transformed into a major agricultural shipping hub.
贝尔德河畔卢卡斯是一个偏远的农业城镇，有7万人。它可能会发现自己几乎处在这条3300英里长的规划线路的中间位置。这激起了一些人的希望，以为这座城市可能会变成一个主要的农产品运输中心。
But in the shadows of the grain silos towering over soybean fields and the meat-processing plant here, the responses have often involved more shrugging than jumping for joy.
但在耸立在大豆田旁边的粮仓及肉制品加工厂投下的阴影里，人们的反应往往更多的是满不在乎，而非欢欣雀跃。
“I don’t doubt that China has the money and know-how to make this happen,” said Ricardo Tomczyk, the president of an industry group representing soybean farmers. But “we know that Brazil’s bureaucracy is more formidable than building a railway across the peaks of the Andes.”
“我不怀疑中国有做成这件事所需要的资金和技术，”一个代表大豆种植者的行业组织的负责人里卡多·托姆奇克(Ricardo Tomczyk)说。但“我们知道，巴西的官僚主义，比在安第斯山脉的丛山峻林中修铁路更棘手”。
More enthusiastic supporters of the venture argue that the recent flux in the Chinese economy is merely a blip in China’s rise in Latin America. Though some economists have noted the steady decline in China’s foreign currency reserves, Chinese banks and engineering companies are still expected to have ample funds for the $10 billion project, they say, despite the recent drop in China’s currency, the renminbi.
更热情一些的支持者则表示，中国经济最近出现的动荡，只是让该国在拉美崛起的趋势暂时回落。一些经济学家提到了中国外汇储备的稳步下滑，但他们表示，中国的银行和工程公司依然有望为涉及100亿美元的这一项目提供充足的资金，即便最近中国的货币人民币出现贬值。
In fact, some political analysts say that the decline in commodity prices and Brazil’s stumbling economy could actually enhance China’s bargaining power, helping it to persuade the local authorities to accept Chinese terms for the railway.
事实上，一些政治分析人士称，大宗商品价格的下跌和巴西经济面临的困境，实际上可能会增加中国讨价还价的能力，帮助中国说服地方政府接受中方给修建铁路开出的条件。
“Barring a more intense crisis in China, Chinese investors still wield enormous financial clout, far more than the strained players in the Brazilian market,” said André Nassif, an economist at Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas, an elite university in Rio de Janeiro.
“除非国内出现更严峻的危机，中国投资者拥有的巨大金融实力，依然大幅压倒巴西市场上那些承受着压力的参与者，”里约热内卢的精英学府瓦加斯商学院(Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas)的经济学者安德烈·纳西夫(André Nassif)说。
Still, political leaders, farmers and environmental activists are eyeing China’s difficulties in completing railroads elsewhere in Latin America. They point out Brazil’s particularly nettlesome bureaucracy, its laws prohibiting China from hiring its own laborers, a web of auditing courts, and the capacity of dozens of different prosecutors to cripple megaprojects with lawsuits.
然而，政治领袖、农场主和环保活动人士正观察着中国在完成拉美其他地方的铁路时面临的困难。他们指出了巴西特别恼人的官僚体系、禁止中国雇佣自己的工人的法律、错综复杂的审计法庭以及可以通过诉讼打击大型项目的数十名各类检察官。
“On top of all that, we have a very fragile government,” said Otaviano Pivetta, the mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde, noting the push to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, who supports the Chinese railway project. “Sure, I’d like this to happen, but we cannot ignore the obstacles.”
“除此之外，我们的政府非常脆弱，”贝尔德河畔卢卡斯市长奥塔维亚诺·皮韦塔(Otaviano Pivetta)说。他提到了弹劾支持中国铁路项目的总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)的行动。“当然，我希望这个项目能做成，但我们不能忽视那些障碍。”
China already outranks the United States as Brazil’s largest trading partner. But while Chinese demand for commodities fueled the growth of farming cities like Lucas do Rio Verde, exports of soybeans and corn are still largely taken to ports on deplorable public roads like BR-163, a 1,097-mile route cutting across the Amazon.
中国已经超越美国，成为巴西最大的贸易伙伴。尽管中国对大宗商品的需求推动了贝尔德河畔卢卡斯等农业城镇的增长，但出口的大豆和玉米，依然主要通过BR-163等路况糟糕的公路运往港口。BR-163是一条穿越亚马孙雨林的线路，长1097英里。
Stretches of the road remain unpaved, raising freight costs. When it rains, some truckers along muddy stretches simply find themselves stuck for days.
这条路的部分路段仍是土路，这增加了货运成本。下雨天，一些行驶在泥泞路段的货车司机会发现，自己要被困数天。
Scholars of China’s ties to Latin America say the proposed railway would go well beyond cutting shipping costs, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to secure raw materials, improve its food security and find new markets for Chinese engineering and rail firms at a time when the nation’s economic growth is slowing.
研究中国与拉美的关系的学者称，提议的铁路远不止会削减运输成本，它还反映了中国在国内经济增长放缓之际，为获得原料、增强粮食安全并为中国的工程和铁路公司寻找新市场而采取的行动。
“The Chinese don’t fully trust that the U.S. won’t try to restrict them at certain strategic choke points,” said R. Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, pointing to China’s reliance on shipping lanes like the Panama Canal.
“中国不完全相信美国不会在某些战略要冲上试图限制他们，”美国陆军战争学院战略研究院(United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute)的拉美研究教授R·埃文·埃利斯(R. Evan Ellis)说。他指出了中国对巴拿马运河等运输通道的依赖。
Some political leaders in both Brazil and Peru have welcomed the Chinese proposal, gauging its seriousness by the fact that Li Keqiang, the Chinese prime minister, personally promoted the project while visiting both countries in May. Chinese officials agreed to deliver a feasibility report in about a year.
在巴西和秘鲁，一些政治领袖对中国的提议表示欢迎。他们是根据中国总理李克强在5月访问两国期间亲自促进该项目这个事实，来判断中方的认真程度的。中国官员同意在大约一年后拿出一份可行性报告。
The governors of three states in the Brazilian Amazon that the railroad would traverse are voicing support for the railway. But even some who stand to benefit from it acknowledge the vexing array of challenges.
铁路将贯穿巴西亚马孙地区的三个州。这三个州的州长均表示支持该项目。但就连一些很可能会从中受益的人也承认，存在诸多令人心烦的挑战。
“I don’t want to be pessimistic about their railroad, but it will be very hard,” said Marino Franz, a former mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde.
“对他们这条铁路，我不想表现得悲观，但这件事的确会很难，”前贝尔德河畔卢卡斯市长马里诺·弗朗茨(Marino Franz)说。
Powerful political and business figures, whose river ports and soybean processing centers could be threatened by the railway, are already blasting the Chinese venture.
一些有权势的政界和商界人物已经在炮轰中国这个项目了。他们的河港和大豆加工中心可能会受到铁路的威胁。
“I don’t believe in it,” Senator Blairo Maggi, a soybean farmer and former governor of Mato Grosso State told his counterparts in the Senate.
“我不相信这个项目，”参议员布莱罗·马吉(Blairo Maggi)在参议院对自己的同僚说。他是一名大豆农场主，曾担任马托格罗索州的州长。
Of course, other Chinese infrastructure projects have made progress in Latin America, helping reshape the region. In Argentina, where Chinese companies are upgrading a dilapidated cargo network, imports of railroad materials and trains from China reached around $700 million in 2014, up from $50 million in 2011. In Ecuador, state-owned Chinese banks have already put nearly $11 billion into the country, building a dam, roads, highways, bridges, and hospitals.
当然，中国在拉美的其他基础设施项目已取得进展，帮助重塑了该地区。在阿根廷，中国公司正在对破败的货运网络进行升级，从中国进口铁路材料和火车的贸易额，从2011年的5000万美元，增加到了2014年的约7亿美元。在厄瓜多尔，中国的国有银行已向该国投入近110亿美元，用于修建大坝、高速公路、桥梁和医院。
Some in Brazil argue that Chinese companies are learning from their successes and setbacks. Here in Brazil, Sinopec, the Chinese energy producer, built a $1.3 billion gas pipeline. Now Brazilian officials are investigating claims of gross overbilling in its construction.
一些巴西人称，中国公司正在吸取经验和教训。在巴西，中国能源生产商中国石化投资13亿美元，修建了一条输气管道。眼下，巴西官员正在调查施工过程中存在严重的虚开账单现象的说法。
With Brazil’s economy ailing, some powerful officials are signaling that they may be willing to accept China’s proposal, while also suggesting that the railway could be pursued with a less ambitious, piecemeal approach.
在巴西经济不景气的情况下，一些有影响力的官员释放的信号表明，他们可能愿意接受中国的提议。但他们也表示，可以用不那么野心勃勃的、循序渐进的方式对待该铁路项目。
“The Twin-Ocean Railway could be done in parts,” Nelson Barbosa, Brazil’s planning minister, said in testimony before the Senate, emphasizing in particular two stretches where farming groups have clamored for railroads.
“两洋铁路可以分部分进行，”巴西规划部长尼尔森·巴博萨(Nelson Barbosa)在参议院作证时说。他特别强调了两个路段。在那两个地区，农业团体极力支持修建铁路。
Mr. Gallagher said the railway ranks among the largest infrastructure projects in Latin America in the last century.
加拉格尔称，这个铁路项目可谓是过去一个世纪里拉美地区最大的基础设施项目之一。
“China will have to race up the learning curve for this to succeed,” he said. “If the Chinese can’t make this happen, then no one can.”
“要想成功，中国必须加快学习步伐，”他说。“如果中国做不成，那就没人能做成了。”
