中国铁路基建商海外寻路

From sublime to ridiculous. China’s railway infrastructure builders have stopped at both of late.

从云端跌落尘埃。中国铁路基础设施制造商最近经历了这种过山车。

Since the fourth quarter last year, there have been three visits to sublime. In October: dual Hong Kong and Shanghai-listed China CNR beat global players including Bombardier to a $567m contract to provide Boston’s subway with rolling stock. It was China’s first win in the US.

自去年第四季度以来，中国铁路基础设施制造商有3次冲上云霄。去年10月，在香港和上海两地双重上市的中国北车(China CNR)击败包括庞巴迪(Bombardier)在内的全球竞争对手，获得为波士顿地铁提供价值5.67亿美元的地铁车辆的合同。这是中国公司首次在美国赢得此类投标。

In November: a $12bn deal for China Railway Construction Corp (CRCC), similarly listed, to build 1,400km of high-speed line linking Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial centre, with Calabar in the east. It is the largest Chinese overseas contract of any sort to date.

11月：同样在香港和上海两地双重上市的中国铁建(CRCC)赢得了一份价值120亿美元的合同，为尼日利亚建设一条西至商业中心拉各斯东至卡拉巴、全程1400公里的高铁。这是中国迄今在海外赢得的最大金额的合同。

And in December: the news of the long-awaited merger of CSR Corp and China CNR, the world’s largest manufacturers of rolling stock by sales and frequent rivals for overseas contracts. By eliminating competition, the deal should improve bid prices for the combined company — shares in the two rose as much as 60 and 75 per cent respectively in the two days after the announcement. Shareholders will vote on the $45bn deal next month.

12月：期待已久的中国南车(CSR Corp)和中国北车的合并交易终于成行。按销售计算，中国南车和中国北车是全球最大的轨道车辆制造商，它们往往在海外竞争合同。通过消除竞争，该交易应该会让合并后的新公司提高投标价格——在合并消息宣布之后的两天内，两家公司股价分别上涨60%和75%。股东们将在下月投票表决这笔450亿美元的合并交易。

So far, so good. Still, two less impressive stops have damped enthusiasm. In November, Mexico’s government cancelled a $3.6bn contract it had given to a consortium led by CRCC and CSR Corp just days before, citing a lack of transparency in the rapid and uncontested bid process. The consortium pitched for the reopened tender, but late last Friday Mexico announced new delays as domestic political scandal envelops the process. Hong Kong H shares in China’s railway names fell between 3 and 5 per cent yesterday. The Shanghai “A” shares dropped a 10th apiece.

说到这里还没什么问题。然而，两个不那么引人瞩目的挫折让人们的热情降温。去年11月，墨西哥政府取消了仅仅数天前给予由中国铁建和中国南车牵头的财团的36亿美元合同，理由是竞标时间短且没有竞争对手，缺乏透明度。该财团力争在重启的竞标中夺标，但直到最近，随着国内政治丑闻缠身，墨西哥宣布再度搁置高铁项目。在香港上市的中国铁路基建概念股也随即下跌3%至5%，在上海上市的此类概念股全都下跌10%。

Still, ridiculous seems to say more about Mexican signalling than it does about the direction of Chinese railway companies. Last November, China’s government pledged $40bn to a “Silk Road Fund” for infrastructure aimed at boosting Asian connectivity. Expect more sublime messages ahead.

不过，跌落云端的似乎是墨西哥的高铁，而不是中国铁路公司的方向。去年11月，中国政府承诺出资400亿美元成立“丝路基金”，用来建设旨在提升亚洲连通性的基础设施。预计未来将有更多中国铁路公司攀上云端的消息。