中国股市为何波动剧烈 Why are China’s stock markets so volatile

China is now home to the world’s largest equity markets after the US. Yet extreme volatility is still typical, with benchmark indices often swinging as much as 10 per cent in hours. On one day in June, for example, more than $700bn was wiped off Chinese stocks.

中国现在已经是全球仅次于美国的第二大股票市场。然而极度波动仍然是中国股市的典型特征，基准股指在数小时内的振幅常常高达10%。例如，今年6月的某一天，中国股市逾7000亿美元市值灰飞烟灭。

What is the investor profile behind China’s equity market?

中国股市的投资者是什么样子的？

Retail punters account for 80-90 per cent of trading. Many of them are new to investing — in May alone 12m trading accounts were opened. That means millions of people trading stocks have little or no direct memory of the 2007-08 stock market bubble and crash.

散户投资者占到中国股市成交量的80%至90%。其中许多人是新股民——仅在今年5月一个月就有1200万新开账户。这意味着数百万股民对2007-08年股市泡沫和崩盘只有很少的直接记忆，或者完全没有记忆。

Even professional fund managers often act with very short-term horizons. Many are measured on monthly or quarterly performance, adding pressure to chase the market higher as it moves.

即便专业的基金公司往往也会超短线交易。许多基金公司按月或者按季衡量业绩，这增加了它们在股市上涨时追涨的压力。

What impact has state policy had on the market?

政府政策对中国股市有什么影响？

Chinese markets are often described as policy-driven. That goes well beyond monetary policy and deep into securities and banking regulation. State-media rhetoric has a role, shown by supportive messages in various government newspapers. But Beijing’s pronouncements are often open to interpretation, leading to sharp rises and falls as millions of investors try to read the runes.

中国股市往往被称为“政策市”。这远非仅仅指货币政策，而是还深深涉及证券和银行业监管。官方媒体言论也占一席之地，各类政府报纸发表的支持性信息就体现了这一点。但对中国政府的声明往往会有各种解读，在数百万投资者努力一窥玄机时，导致股市暴涨暴跌。

As long as the stock market remains a policy lever for the government, and share indices dominated by state-owned enterprises, Beijing’s heavy hand is unlikely to be significantly weakened.

只要股市依然是中国政府的政策工具、同时股指依然由国有企业主导，中国政府的强力干预就不太可能被大幅削弱。

Beijing has tried to encourage long-term institutional investors, for example by granting freer access to large foreign asset managers or sovereign wealth funds. Progress has been slow.

中国政府努力鼓励长期机构投资者，例如让大型外国资产管理公司或者主权财富基金更自由地进入国内股市。但这方面的进展一直非常缓慢。

Margin finance has been cited as major factor behind growth. How does it work?

融资交易一直被视为推动中国股市本轮上涨的主要因素。它是如何作用的？

Using borrowed money to trade stocks is a common feature of equity markets globally but in China it has rocketed over the past year. Margin trading as a percentage of overall market capitalisation reached a record earlier this year, says Macquarie — far higher than anything in any other market at any point in history.

用借来的资金炒股是全球股市的共同特征，但在中国，融资交易在过去一年里激增。麦格理(Macquarie)表示，今年早些时候，融资交易占市场整体市值的比例达到了创纪录的高点，远高于历史上其他所有市场中的这一比例。

High levels of leverage help explain why stocks ran up so quickly over the past year. But that borrowing leaves the stock market prone to dramatic falls as investors struggle to meet margin calls.

高杠杆有助于解释股市为何在过去一年里如此快速地上涨。但在投资者难以满足追加保证金要求的时候，这种杠杆让股市很容易大幅下跌。

The regulators have tried to cut the level of margin lending in the system, a key reason for the recent pull back.

监管机构试图降低系统内的杠杆水平，这就是最近股市回落的关键原因。

Have initial public offerings also helped drive the market?

首次公开发行(IPO)也助推了市场走势？

The system for new listings in China remains tightly controlled by authorities. The state in effect sets the price of new share sales, virtually guaranteeing quick bumper returns for those able to buy in. Even when the Shanghai market has fallen sharply, IPOs have typically risen by the daily limit of 44 per cent.

中国新股发行机制依然受到政府的严格控制。政府实际上制定新股发行价格，相当于确保让那些能够买到的投资者可以迅速获得巨额回报。即便在上海股市大幅下跌之际，新股在上市首日通常也会达到44%的涨幅上限。

The result is investors pull cash from the market ahead of new listings, draining billions of dollars of liquidity for a number of days. That can torpedo the market, but then push it back up when the funds are unlocked again.

结果是，投资者在新股发行前从市场抽出资金，在一段时间内持续抽走数十亿美元的流动性。这可以让市场暴跌，但在资金再次解冻时又可以推升股市。

Regulators are aware of the need for a rethink, and have promised to hand over IPO approval powers to the stock exchanges.

监管机构意识到有必要进行反思，并承诺将IPO审批权交给证券交易所。

What are the hedging options?

有哪些对冲选择？

Although China has introduced a system for short-selling stocks, it remains of little use in practical terms. Borrowing costs are high and the availability of stock to borrow is limited. The only viable way of hedging exposure is through index futures, unhelpful for those trading specific stocks or sectors. Instead, traders buy or sell to lessen or increase exposure, which can result in stampedes when sentiment switches.

尽管中国推出了融券机制，但在现实中仍然用处不大。融券成本很高，而且可供融入的股票有限。对冲股票风险的唯一可行方式是通过股指期货，但这对那些交易个股或板块的投资者来说没什么帮助。实际上，交易员通过买卖股指期货来降低或者增加风险敞口，这在市场情绪转变时可能导致投资者蜂拥出逃。

And what are the prospects for change?

变革的前景如何？

That regulators have tried to introduce shorting at all shows a recognition of the problem. April’s debut of options for shorting small-caps was an important step in the right direction. But the steps taken fall far short of what is needed, suggesting that authorities remain wary of the consequences of making short selling easier.

监管机构既然努力推出卖空机制，就表明他们认识到了问题。今年4月首次推出的可以做空小盘股的中证500股指期货是朝正确方向迈出的重要一步。但这些举措远远满足不了需求，表明当局仍对降低做空难度的后果怀有戒心。