巴基斯坦民主的关键时刻

No Pakistani government has served out its full term since independence in 1947. This dismal democratic record is set to continue with the ousting of prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Friday.

自1947年独立以来，巴基斯坦没有一届政府服务完整个任期。巴总理纳瓦兹?谢里夫(Nawaz Sharif)上周五遭解职意味着这一令人沮丧的民主记录将延续下去。

The accompanying allegations of corruption are serious and extend to at least five members of the Sharif family. But the military’s role in the process is also a matter of concern.

随之而来的严重腐败指控已经波及谢里夫家族至少5名成员。但巴军方在此过程中所扮演的角色也是一个令人担忧的问题。

This saga began with last year’s Panama Papers leak, revealing the Sharifs’ children to be the proud, but undeclared, owners of some decidedly high-end property overlooking London’s Hyde Park.

这场大戏始于去年的巴拿马文件(Panama Papers)外泄——曝光了谢里夫子女们名下一些未申报的、可俯瞰伦敦海德公园(Hyde Park)的高端房产。

The family’s claims that the suspect assets had come from legitimate business interests were rather undermined by forensic analysis showing documents, supposedly created in 2006 and central to the family’s defence, were typed with a computer font that was not commercially available at the time. In Pakistan, the scandal became known as #fontgate.

谢里夫家族声称这些受到质疑的资产来自合法商业利益，但这一说法遭到了法院调查的驳斥。调查发现，一些据称2006年签署、该家族用以辩护的核心文件，用的是一种当时还未开放商用的电脑字体打印的。这桩丑闻在巴基斯坦被称为“#字体门”(#fontgate)。

In removing Mr Sharif from office, the supreme court simply cited two articles in the constitution — both inserted by a past military dictatorship — that require office-holders to be honest and morally upright. Mr Sharif will now likely face corruption charges.

在解除谢里夫的职务时，巴最高法院仅引用了宪法中的两条——均由以前的军事独裁政府写入——要求公职人员诚实并坚守道德规范。谢里夫现在很可能面临腐败指控。

As ever in Pakistan, tensions between civilian government and the powerful military hugely complicate the issue. Mr Sharif has had two previous stints as prime minister and on both occasions his early exit was at the behest of the generals. On this occasion there has been inevitable speculation that the military was pressing for such an outcome again.

与以往一样，巴基斯坦文职政府与强大军方之间的紧张关系使这个问题更加复杂化。谢里夫此前曾两度出任总理，而之前他两次提前下台都是拜将军们所赐。这一次，外界不可避免会猜测，军方正在为再次达到这一结果施压。

One of Mr Sharif’s stated foreign policy goals — better relations with India — posed a particular threat to the army. The perceived Indian threat has ensured the military receives a large slice of Pakistan’s budget and helped the generals maintain autonomy from civilian meddling. This extends to the media, where some local television stations have instituted a 30 second buffer in live broadcasts to mute any criticism of the army.

谢里夫提出的外交政策目标之一是改善与印度的关系，这尤其对巴军方造成了威胁。让民众感受到来自印度的威胁确保了军方可以获得巴基斯坦很大一部分预算，并有助于将军们保持不受政府干预的自治权。军方的压力也传导到了媒体，一些地方电视台在现场直播中设置了30秒的缓冲，以屏蔽对军队的任何批评声音。

The India fixation has also benefited Pakistan’s premier spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, which allegedly maintains murky relations with various militants — triggering last year’s refusal by the US to release $300m in military reimbursements over concerns that Pakistan was not fighting the Taliban’s Haqqani network.

对印度的关注也有利于巴基斯坦最高间谍机构三军情报局(Inter-Services Intelligence)，据说该机构与各种武装分子保持着不可告人的关系，导致去年美国担心巴基斯坦没有打击塔利班(Taliban)的“哈卡尼网络”(Haqqani network)，拒绝报销3亿美元军费。

There is of course an argument that this whole affair is cause for applause: Mr Sharif was ousted as a result of a formal judicial process, offering a sharp example that Pakistan elite society is actually moving against endemic corruption.

当然，有种说法是这整件事值得鼓掌：谢里夫经由正式司法程序被罢免提供了一个鲜明的例证——巴基斯坦精英社会实际上正在对抗大范围的腐败。

The judiciary has certainly reasserted itself since lawyers fought against then-President General Pervez Musharraf’s firing of judges in 2007. But in the Sharif case, the six member joint investigative team who produced the report, spurring the supreme court action, included representatives from two military intelligence agencies. That alone raises concerns over the fairness of the process.

确实，在2007年时任总统佩尔韦兹?穆沙拉夫上将(General Pervez Musharraf)宣布解除法官职务，引发律师界与之对抗之后，司法机构已经重新确立了其权威地位。但在谢里夫案中，制作报告、促使最高法院解除谢里夫职务的六人联合调查小组中包括两名军事情报机构的代表。仅这一点就引起了对该司法过程公正性的关切。

What happens next is critical. Several would-be replacements for Mr Sharif, such as former cricketer Imran Khan and Benazir Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari, are already facing corruption-related charges. And it remains the case that the army has used civilian political vacuums in the past to take control.

接下来的走向是关键。谢里夫的几个接替人选——如前板球运动员伊姆兰?汗(Imran Khan)和贝娜齐尔?布托(Benazir Bhutto)的丈夫阿西夫?阿里?扎尔达里(Asif Ali Zardari)——已经面临腐败相关指控。而军方以前曾利用文职政治真空来取得控制。

Meanwhile, if the judiciary wants to solidify its independence and demonstrate real action on malfeasance at the top of Pakistan society then it will make sure Mr Sharif has a fair and transparent trial.

同时，如果司法部门想要巩固自己的独立性，并证明真正对巴基斯坦社会高层的违法行为采取了行动，就应确保谢里夫受到公平透明的审判。