特朗普接蔡英文电话 无心还是有意

The conversation between Donald Trump and the president of Taiwan was just a “courtesy call”, vice-president elect Mike Pence said on Sunday as he attempted to damp down a diplomatic firestorm that has the potential to upend US-China relations.

美国候任副总统迈克.彭斯(Mike Pence)上周日表示，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)与台湾总统的对话只是一次“礼节性的通话”。彭斯试图以此化解一起可能造成美中关系大变天的外交风暴。

The call between Mr Trump and Tsai Ing-wen was the first such contact since US diplomatic relations were cut in 1979 and has left the world guessing whether the president-elect ignored diplomatic protocol by accident or whether he was signalling that the status of Taiwan would be a central part of his administration’s China strategy.

特朗普与蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)之间的通话，是1979年美国与台湾断绝外交关系以来双方领导人首次进行此类接触。世界各地的人们因此纷纷猜测，这位候任美国总统究竟是无意间忽视了外交礼节，还是在释放一种信号，表明台湾地位问题在他的对华战略中将是一个核心元素。

The phone conversation, which stunned many China-watchers and diplomats in Washington, follows a series of calls with world leaders since the election where Mr Trump has appeared to improvise foreign policy positions, with little input from the government bureaucracy that handles such interactions.

华盛顿许多中国问题观察家和外交官对这通电话大为震惊。自美国大选结果揭晓以来，世界各地的许多领导人都曾打来电话，在负责处理此类往来事务的政府部门几乎没有提供什么建议的情况下，特朗普展现出一种即兴发挥的外交政策立场。

While some of Mr Trump’s supporters have welcomed his style as a refreshing break from establishment niceties, critics fear that the president-elect could blunder into a crisis through a mixture of lack of preparation and unwillingness to take advice.

特朗普的部分支持者对他这种风格表示欢迎，认为这是令人耳目一新的与建制派礼仪的切割，批评人士却担心这位候任总统会由于缺乏准备和不愿听取意见，稀里糊涂地引发危机。

“What we need to realise is that we are entering into an era of shoot-from-the-lip foreign policy,” said David Rothkopf, chief executive and editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine. “All of these calls have demonstrated a combination of ignorance and some sort of nascent policy position.”

《外交政策》杂志(Foreign Policy)首席执行官兼总编辑戴维.罗特科普夫(David Rothkopf)表示：“我们需要认识到的是，我们正在进入一个口无遮拦的外交政策的时代。所有这些电话都显示了无知和某种不成熟政策立场的结合。”

He added that Mr Trump “fails to realise that everything he does has a foreign policy consequence”, so that tweets about the New York Times are “seen by [president] Erdogan in Turkey as a sign that the US is less concerned about press freedom”.

他还表示，特朗普“没有认识到他做的每件事都具有外交政策含义”，因此他在Twitter上发的有关《纽约时报》(New York Times)的言论会“被土耳其的（总统）埃尔多安(Erdogan)视为美国如今不那么重视新闻自由的证明”。

Speaking with the Taiwanese president is such a sensitive issue as China regards the island as a renegade province. For four decades, the US has enacted an uneasy compromise to help keep the peace, selling Taiwan arms to boost its defences, but refusing to have formal diplomatic relations that would anger Beijing.

与台湾总统通电话就是这样一个敏感问题，因为中国将台湾视为一个叛离省份。40年来，美国采取一种不太安稳的折中路线来帮助维持和平局面：向台湾出售武器以增强其防务能力，但拒绝与台湾建立正式外交关系，因为那会激怒北京。

With speculation mounting about the motives behind the call, Mr Pence said that the Taiwanese leader had called to offer her congratulations. “It’s a little mystifying to me that President Obama can reach out to a murdering dictator in Cuba in the last year and be hailed as a hero for doing it and President-elect Donald Trump takes a courtesy call from a democratically elected leader in Taiwan and it’s become something of a controversy,” he said.

在外界对这通电话背后的动机产生诸多猜测之际，彭斯声称，台湾领导人打来这个电话是想表示祝贺。他说：“去年奥巴马总统可以主动向古巴一个手上沾着鲜血的独裁者示好，还因此被誉为英雄，如今候任总统唐纳德.特朗普接了台湾民选领导人一个礼节性的电话，却成了一件有争议的事，这让我感到有点困惑。”

However, there is a group of conservative foreign policy specialists, some of whom are being considered for senior positions in the Trump administration, who have long pushed for the US to provide a more vocal defence of Taiwan and its democracy.

不过，美国还有一群持保守立场的对外政策专家，他们长期支持美国更多地为台湾和台湾民主制度发声。他们中有一些人是可能在特朗普政府中担任高级职位的人选。

John Bolton, former US ambassador to the UN, who visited Mr Trump in New York on Friday, told Fox News at the weekend: “Honestly, I think we should shake the relationship up [with China] . . . Nobody in Beijing gets to dictate who we talk to. It’s ridiculous to think that the phone call upsets decades of anything.”

前美国驻联合国大使约翰.博尔顿(John Bolton)上周五在纽约拜会了特朗普，他上周末向福克斯新闻(Fox News)表示：“说实话，我认为我们应该好好调整（与中国的）关系……北京方面没人可以指定我们的谈话对象。那种认为这次电话颠覆了延续几十年的某种东西的看法很荒唐。”

With diplomats from the region calling nervously to find out if the US is on the verge of a major policy shift, it was left to the Obama White House to make a clear statement that there was “no change” in the so-called “One China” policy. “Our fundamental interest is in peaceful and stable cross-Strait relations,” said Ned Price, a White House spokesman.

由于亚洲地区的外交官纷纷紧张地致电询问，希望了解美国是否即将进行重大政策转变，奥巴马政府不得不明确声明，“一个中国”政策“不会改变”。“和平稳定的台海关系符合我们的根本利益，”白宫发言人内德.普赖斯(Ned Price)说。

The potential for influential aides to nudge the president-elect into making sharp shifts in policy has been aggravated by the fact that Mr Trump has only received a small number of intelligence briefings since the election — something that most president-elects received daily. At the same time, the state department has had little involvement in providing support for the president-elect ahead of his calls with world leaders.

在当选后，特朗普接收的情报简报较少（大多数候任总统每天都会接收到情报简报），这使重要助手推动特朗普采取重大政策转变的可能性变大。同时，在特朗普与世界各国领袖通电话前，美国国务院为这位候任总统提供的支持很少。

Instead, what has emerged from the readouts provided by other governments is an improvised, conversational style of engagement that at the minimum runs the risk of causing offence and at the extreme of creating new obligations for the US.

相反，其他国家政府提供的通话记录反映出一种即兴式的、谈话风格的交往，这种交往在最低程度上有引起反感的风险，在极端情况下可能会导致美国承担新的义务。

In a call with UK prime minister Theresa May, he said that “if you travel to the US, you should let me know” and in a call with Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan he said: “I am ready and willing to play any role that you want me to play”, which some in the region interpreted as a willingness to mediate between Pakistan and India.

在与英国首相特里萨.梅(Theresa May)通话时，他说“如果你来美国，要告诉我一声”。在与巴基斯坦总理纳瓦兹.谢里夫(Nawaz Sharif)通话时，他说：“我十分乐意扮演任何你希望我扮演的角色。”该地区的一些人士将这解读为他愿意在巴基斯坦和印度之间居中调解。

“The White House and the state department are terrified about what this guy is going to do over the next six weeks,” said a former senior official in the Obama administration. “That is one reason why Obama has tried to offer so much help to Trump for the transition, because he is worried that the president-elect is flying blind.”

“这家伙在接下来6个星期会做什么让白宫和国务院提心吊胆，”一位曾在奥巴马政府中担任高级职位的人士说：“这就是奥巴马试图为特朗普的过渡提供如此之多的帮助的一个原因，因为他担心这位候任总统现在两眼一摸黑、只能凭感觉行事。”

Even if Mr Trump decides not to make Taiwan a central issue, the mistrust that the call is likely to have generated in Beijing could become more important if the new administration adopts some of the tough trade measures on China that were promised on the campaign trail.

即使特朗普决定不把台湾当做一个核心议题，如果他领导的政府对中国采取他在竞选阶段承诺的一些强硬贸易措施，这通电话在北京催生的不信任感也可能会升级。

The Chinese foreign ministry issued a protest about the call, however experts said Beijing’s reaction has been comparatively restrained, reflecting a desire to “educate” Mr Trump, rather than humiliate him, according to academic Shi Yinhong, an expert on US-China relations at Beijing’s Renmin University.

中国外交部对这通电话提出了抗议，但专家表示，北京方面的反应较为克制。中国人民大学中美关系专家、学者时殷弘认为，中方的回应反映出一种“教育”特朗普、而不是羞辱他的意思。

Mr Shi added that the call would increase the anxiety in Beijing about the new administration. “The Chinese government is not assuming that Trump is ignorant of the Taiwan issues,” he said.

时殷弘补充说，这通电话会让北京方面对美国下届政府感到更加不安。他表示：“中国政府并不认为特朗普对台湾问题一无所知。