石油输出国组织成员国达成减产协议

The deal agreed by Opec members this week will come to symbolise the passing of one of the world’s most powerful cartels.

石油输出国组织(Opec，简称欧佩克)的成员国在11月30日达成的减产协议，预示着这个全球最强大的卡特尔组织之一即将成为过去。

After 50 years in control of the oil price, Opec has submitted to the economic power of a much-changed global market.

在控制油价50年后，欧佩克屈服于已经大变样的世界石油市场的经济力量。

The deal represents the recognition of their own impotence by a group of countries that once held unchallenged power.

该协议代表着，这些曾经在石油市场上呼风唤雨的国家不得不承认自己无能为力。

The agreement to cut production from January by 1.2m barrels a day raised prices on the world market by almost 10 per cent.

欧佩克决定从明年1月起每天减产120万桶，该协议推动国际油价飙升近10%。

The net result was a global price for Brent crude, the International benchmark, of $52 a barrel — up a few dollars from the previous day but still down almost 50 per cent from two years ago.

全球油价基准——布伦特原油价格(Brent)升至每桶52美元，较前一个交易日上涨几美元，但仍较两年前的水平低了近一半。

What should investors and consumers make of all this? First, consider the modesty of the increase in prices.

投资者和消费者如何理解当前形势？首先，考虑一下油价有限的涨幅。

This is not a deal capable of lifting prices to the level of $60 or $70 a barrel that is supposed to be Opec’s target.

这项协议无法将油价提升到每桶60美元至70美元的水平，这想必是欧佩克的目标水平。

The market is obviously sceptical about delivery.

市场显然怀疑协议能否得到履行。

Will Iran limit its production when it desperately needs increased output and revenue to sustain its economy? Will Russia actually cut output by 300,000 b/d? When did Russia last participate in an Opec quota exercise? Answer: never.

伊朗在亟需扩大石油产量和收入以维持国内经济的情况下会限产吗？俄罗斯真的会每天减产30万桶？俄罗斯上一次参与欧佩克的配额管理是什么时候？答案是从来没有过。

Second, take stocks — which, according to the International Energy Agency and every other independent organisation that follows the oil market, will take at least a year (probably more) to run down.

第二，考虑一下库存，根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)以及其他所有追踪石油市场的独立组织的数据，全球石油库存需要至少一年（可能更长时间）才能降下来。

If the Opec production cut were considered in isolation, this surplus might be expected to fall.

如果只考虑欧佩克减产的话，过剩库存也许会下降。

But there is a surge of production coming in the next 12 months from new fields in countries outside Opec, such as Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan.

但未来12个月，欧佩克以外国家新油田的产量将出现飙升，例如巴西、加拿大和哈萨克斯坦。

It is perfectly possible that total global production — from Opec and non-Opec states combined — will be higher next year than in 2016.

因此明年全球石油总产量（欧佩克成员国以及非欧佩克国家的总和）很有可能会高于2016年。

Third, consider the US shale business, which has every incentive to use the price rises to maintain and increase production.

第三，考虑一下美国的页岩油产业。该行业完全有动力利用油价上涨的机会维持并扩大产量。

Contrary to the prophets of doom, the industry has been remarkably resilient in the past two years.

过去两年中，与悲观预测相反，该行业保持了惊人的韧性，

There has been no collapse.

不但没有崩溃，

Costs have been cut radically.

还大幅削减了成本。

Some companies have shut down production but they will use every opportunity to bring it back on.

一些公司停产，但它们会抓住一切机会恢复生产。

And the advances made in technology and productivity will spread across the world, further increasing output.

技术和生产率方面的进步将被推广到全球，这将进一步扩大产量。

Finally, there is the view from Riyadh.

最后，站在沙特的角度考虑。

The strategy of swamping the market with extra supplies to squeeze out production from competitors and to maintain Saudi Arabia’s share of the world market has failed.

利用过量供应将竞争对手的石油挤出市场、以维持沙特市场份额的战略已经失败。

What next? For all these reasons, the current deal is inadequate and will fail.

接下来会怎样？出于上述原因，当前的减产协议是不够的，必将失败。

The cuts will not be implemented when they are supposed to come into effect in January.

减产协议要等到明年1月生效，可能不会得到切实执行。

Too many of the promises, especially from the non-Opec states, are too vague and the incentive to cheat is too high.

太多的承诺（特别是非欧佩克国家的承诺）过于含糊，欺骗的动机太强。

Opec has no enforcement mechanism against those who break the agreement.

欧佩克对于那些违反协议的国家没有任何执行机制。

The price will fall back, perhaps quite quickly.

油价将回落，而且可能会很快。

Then the real choice comes for Khalid al-Falih, the new Saudi oil minister, who is much more realistic than his predecessors.

到那时，沙特新任石油部长哈立德.法立赫(Khalid al-Falih)将面临真正的选择，他比前任们都务实得多。

To lift prices to anything close to $70 a barrel, Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia alone, will have to cut production dramatically — by another 1m to 1.5m b/d, and to hold it down at that level for a year or more.

要让油价升至接近每桶70美元的水平，沙特——单单沙特自己——就必须大幅减产，将日产量再削减100万桶，达到150万桶，并维持在这个水平一年以上。

Cartels need a swing producer that has the capacity to vary production to the degree necessary to control the market and which can absorb the pain of such a move.

卡特尔组织需要一个机动的生产者(swing producer)，它要有能力以控制市场所需的力度对产量进行调节，并且能够承受这样做所带来的痛苦。

That is what they would have done in the past, but it may now be impossible, economically and politically.

放在过去它们就这样做了，但现在从经济、政治角度来看或许做不到这一点了。

Saudi Arabia cannot sustain such a sacrifice, particularly given its weak security situation and its failure to diversify its economy.

沙特无法承受这种牺牲，尤其是在该国安全形势薄弱以及未能实现经济多样性的情况下。

If that is true, the $50 price we have today is a ceiling.

若果真如此，当前的每桶50美元价格就是油价能够达到的最高水平了。

Opec as a cartel is over and everyone will have to get used to the new reality.

欧佩克作为一个卡特尔组织的时代结束了，所有人必须适应这个新的现实。