失意的精英与特朗普崛起

Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for president. He might even become president of the US. It is hard to exaggerate the significance and danger of this development. The US was the bastion of democracy and freedom in the 20th century. If it elected Mr Trump, a man with fascistic attitudes to people and power, the world would be transformed.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将成为共和党的总统候选人。他甚至有可能成为美国总统。这一事态意义重大、极度危险。美国是20世纪民主和自由的堡垒。如果对人和权力持法西斯主义态度的特朗普当选美国总统，世界将会彻底改变。

Mr Trump is a misogynist, a racist and a xenophobe. He glories in his own ignorance and inconsistency. Truth is whatever he finds convenient. His policy ideas are ludicrous, where they are not horrifying. Yet his attitudes and ideas are less disturbing than his character: he is a narcissist, bully and spreader of conspiracy theories. It is frightening to consider how such a man would use the powers at the disposal of the president.

特朗普是厌女主义者，一个种族主义者，还是个仇外者。他以自己的无知和反复无常为荣。他总是以对自己有利的方式叙述事实。他的政策理念要么荒唐可笑，要么令人恐惧。然而与他的态度和想法相比，他的性格更令人不安：他是个自恋狂，横行霸道，喜欢传播阴谋论。这样一个人会如何使用美国总统所拥有的权力？这个问题想想就不寒而栗。

Andrew Sullivan, the conservative commentator, recently wrote: “In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event.” He is right.

保守派评论人士安德鲁•沙利文(Andrew Sullivan)最近写道：“特朗普的出现，对我们的自由民主和宪政秩序具有毁灭性影响。”他说得没错。

It might prove surprisingly easy for President Trump to find people willing to execute tyrannical orders or to compel the unwilling to do so. By exaggerating crises or creating them, a would-be despot can pervert judicial and political systems. The presidents of Russia and Turkey are skilful exemplars. The US has an entrenched constitutional order. But even this might buckle, particularly if the president enjoyed impeachment-proof support in Congress.

事实上，如果特朗普当选了美国总统，他可能会轻而易举地找到愿意执行专制秩序的人或强迫不愿意的人执行这种秩序。通过夸大危机或者制造危机，潜在的独裁者可以败坏司法和政治体系。现今的俄罗斯总统和土耳其总统就很擅长此道。美国的宪政秩序根深蒂固。但即便是这种秩序也可能崩塌，尤其是当总统在国会得到的支持，能够保证其免于弹劾的时候。

Mr Sullivan calls on Plato, the greatest of anti-democratic philosophers, in aid. Plato, he reminds us, believed that the more equal a society became the less it would accept authority. In its place would come the demagogue who offers simple remedies for complex problems.

沙利文引用柏拉图(Plato)的话来佐证自己的观点（而柏拉图是最伟大的反民主哲学家）。他提醒我们，柏拉图相信越是平等的社会越不接受威权。一个平等的社会容易出现煽动家，为复杂问题提供简单化的解决之道。

Mr Trump is the pied piper of the enraged and the resentful. He has risen, argues Mr Sullivan, as the man who will “take on the increasingly despised elites”. Moreover, the media revolution has facilitated this rise by erasing “almost any elite moderation or control of our democratic discourse”.

特朗普对社会中感到愤怒和不满的那些人有神奇的感召力。沙利文认为，特朗普是以这一身份崛起于政坛的——将要“挑战日益受到鄙视的精英阶层”的人。此外，媒体革命消除了“精英对我们民主言论的几乎所有制约或者控制”，为特朗普的崛起提供了便利。

Demagoguery is indeed an Achilles heel of democracy. Yet the Athenian democracy, in which Plato lived, did not give way to a domestic tyranny but was rather born from one. It was the Macedonian king who ended it in 338BC.

煽动确实是民主的软肋。然而，柏拉图生活时期的雅典民主政治是从专制政体中诞生的，却并不是被本土专制统治所取代的。直到公元前338年，马其顿国王(Macedonian king)亚历山大大帝征服希腊，才终结了雅典的民主政体。

Above all, Mr Sullivan understates the role of elites. In the case of the US, he argues that wealth is unable to buy the presidency. Mr Obama defeated Mr Romney, for example. But money buys influence at lower levels of politics. More important, elites shape the economy and society. If a swath of the people is enraged, elites bear responsibility.

最重要的是，沙利文低估了精英们的角色。就美国而言，他认为，金钱无法买到总统职位。奥巴马(Obama)击败了罗姆尼(Romney)就是例子。但金钱可以在较低层次的政治中买到影响力。更重要的是，精英阶层塑造了经济和社会。如果一大群人感到愤怒，精英们负有责任。

The righteous attachment of the Democrats to the rights of women and, still more, the cause of minorities, defined by race, sexual orientation and identity, transferred the allegiance of the white, male middle classes, particularly in the old South, to the Republicans. The racial element in “Obama derangement syndrome” is quite clear.

民主党对女性权利以及少数群体（就种族、性取向和认同而言）事业的正义坚持，让中产阶级白人男性转投共和党——尤其是在传统的南部地区。“奥巴马都不对综合症”(Obama derangement syndrome)中，种族因素非常明显。

Then Republicans treated these supporters to a “bait and switch”. They needed these votes for what their donors most desired: low taxes, weak regulation, free trade and liberal immigration. To make these causes goals of the Republican party, elites had to turn the government into the enemy. They also had to entice culturally conservative supporters with promises of change that were never likely to be met.

随后共和党对这些支持者玩了一手“偷梁换柱”。他们需要这些人的选票，来促成他们的金主最想要的低税收、弱监管、自由贸易以及自由移民。要让这几项事业成为共和党的目标，精英们不得不把矛头对准政府。他们也不得不用永远不太可能实现的承诺，来引诱文化上的保守派支持者。

In addition, elites on both sides promoted economic changes that ended up destroying trust in their competence and probity. In this, the financial crisis and consequent bailouts were decisive.

此外，民主党和共和党的精英们都曾推动事与愿违的经济改革——这些改革到头来却破坏了民众对他们的能力和品行的信任。在这一点上，金融危机以及随后的纾困具有决定性影响。

Yet by then the middle classes had suffered decades of real income stagnation and relative income decline. Globalisation has brought huge benefits to many of the world’s poor. But there were significant domestic losers. Today, the latter believe that those who run the economy and polity impoverish, exploit and despise them.

然而，到那时为止，中产阶级已经经历了数十年的实际收入停滞和相对收入下降。全球化为世界上的许多穷人带来了巨大的益处，但也让美国国内许多人成为输家。如今，这些输家认为，那些执掌经济和政治的人让他们变得贫穷，剥削他们，还瞧不起他们。

Even Republican elites have become their enemy and Mr Trump has become their saviour. It is no surprise that he is a billionaire. Caesar, aristocratic leader of the popular party, brought forth “Caesarism”, the rule of the charismatic strongman that Mr Trump wants to be.

就连共和党精英也成了他们的敌人，而特朗普则成了他们的救世主。特朗普是一名亿万富翁，这并不令人感到意外。凯撒(Caesar)是深受民众拥护的贵族领导人，他却创造了“凯撒主义”(Caesarism)，即特朗普向往的那种富有魅力的强人统治。

A healthy republic does not require equality, far from it. But it does require a degree of mutual sympathy. Sudden wealth from new activities — conquest in ancient Rome, banking in medieval Florence — can corrode social bonds. If civic virtue vanishes, a republic becomes ripe for destruction.

一个健康的共和国不需要平等，完全不需要。但它的确需要一定的同情共感。新活动（例如征服古罗马以及中世纪佛罗伦萨的银行业）带来的突如其来的财富，可能腐蚀社会纽带。如果公民道德沦丧，共和国随时就会崩溃。

Economic, social and political changes have brought the US to the point at which a significant part of the population seeks a strongman. It must be sobering to Republican elites that their base chose Mr Trump over Ted Cruz and Mr Cruz over everybody else. The party elite played populist games, notably in their adamant refusal to co-operate with the president. Those better at such games have defeated them.

经济、社会和政治上的变化让美国很大一部分人口希望出现一个强人。面对所有共和党候选人，共和党基层选民的第一选择是特朗普，第二选择是特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)，这对共和党精英肯定无异于当头棒喝。共和党精英玩弄过民粹游戏，尤其是在坚决拒绝与总统合作上。那些更擅长此类游戏的人打败了他们。

Mr Trump realises that his supporters have no interest in the limited state beloved of conservatives. Their desire is rather the restoration of lost economic, racial and sexual status. His response is to promise massive tax cuts, sustained spending and reduced debt. But he does not need logical consistency. That is for the despised “lamestream media”.

特朗普明白，他的支持者对保守派钟情的“小政府”不感兴趣。相反，他们希望恢复自己丧失的经济、种族和性别地位。特朗普的回应是承诺大规模减税、持续支出和削减债务。但他不需要逻辑上的连贯性。那些遭到鄙视的“跛脚媒体”（lamestream media，与mainstream（主流媒体）双关——译者注）才需要。

Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate, tainted by her husband’s failings and her position in the establishment, and short on political talent. She ought to win but might not. But even if she were to win, that would not end this story.

希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)是个实力较弱的候选人，她丈夫的过错和她在建制派中的位置对她造成负面影响，她还缺乏政治天赋。她应该会赢得大选，但也可能会输。但即便她赢得大选，事情也不会就此了结。

Mr Trump has called forth new political possibilities. But it is not mainly an excess of democracy that has brought the US to this pass. It is far more the failings of short-sighted elites. Some of what has happened was right and so should not have been avoided. But much of it could have been. Elites, particularly Republican elites, stoked this fire. It will be hard to put out the blaze.

特朗普激发了新的政治可能性。但美国之所以走到这一步，过度的民主并非主要原因。一个更为重要的原因是目光短浅的精英阶层的失败。有些已经发生的情况是应该发生的，因此也不应避免。但有许多本可以避免。精英们（尤其是共和党的精英们）烧旺了这把火，扑灭它将非常困难。