香港政改投票前民意分歧严重

Five months after Hong Kong’s Occupy protesters were cleared from the streets, the battle for free and fair elections is heating up again ahead of a crucial vote in the Chinese territory’s legislature next month.

距香港清理街头“占中”(Occupy)抗议者已过去了五个月。就在香港立法会于下月进行一次至关重要的投票之前，香港民众争取自由和公平选举的斗争再次升温。

The Hong Kong government needs to win the support of only four opposition, pro-democracy legislators to pass a Beijing-approved proposal to bring in a restricted form of universal suffrage that critics deride as a sham.

香港政府只需赢得四位来自反对派阵营、泛民主议员的支持，就能通过北京方面认可的一个普选提案。该提案引入了一种有限的普选方式，批评人士嘲讽这种普选方式名不副实。

“We don’t have an awful lot of time left and I can’t tell what’s going to happen,” says Jasper Tsang, the president of the legislative council, who has vowed to break with convention by voting, in support of the government. “It looks most likely that both sides will remain intransigent and we won’t be able to make it.”

香港立法会主席曾钰成(Jasper Tsang)表示：“我们并没有大把的时间可以挥霍，我也无法判断会发生什么。最可能的情况是，双方将依然固执己见，导致我们无法达成一致。”

The student-led Occupy movement shut parts of one of Asia’s biggest financial centres for three months last year as protesters called for full democracy and the removal of CY Leung, Hong Kong’s controversial chief executive.

去年，由学生主导的“占中运动”曾导致香港这个亚洲最大金融中心的部分路段关闭三月之久。当时，抗议者呼吁实现全面民主，并呼吁香港争议特首梁振英(CY Leung)下台。

The upcoming vote is the latest battle in a struggle between democracy campaigners and the government of the former British colony, backed by Beijing and Hong Kong’s influential tycoons.

即将到来的投票，是民运阵营与香港政府间的最新一次斗争。香港政府得到了北京中央政府和香港有影响力的富豪们的支持。

Mr Leung has launched a last-ditch campaign to win support for the plan to let Hong Kong’s 5m eligible voters directly elect their next leader for the first time in 2017.

梁振英已发动最后的宣传攻势，以争取人们对上述普选计划的支持。该计划打算在2017年，让香港500万合法选民首次直接选举下任领导人。

But opposition lawmakers, known as the pan-democrats, say they will vote against the proposal because of the requirement for candidates to be pre-approved by a largely pro-Beijing nominating committee.

然而，被称为泛民主派的反对派立法会议员表示，他们将投票反对这一提案，原因是该方案要求候选人经提名委员会预先批准，而该委员会总体上是支持北京的。

If the bill is rejected, the chief executive will continue to be chosen by the 1,200-member committee, which is composed of representatives of industrial and social groups.

如果这一提案被否决，香港特首将继续由提名委员会选举产生。提名委员会拥有1200名成员，由业界团体和社会团体的代表组成。

“There should be no unreasonable restrictions on nominations,” says Emily Lau, who chairs the Democratic party. “The system for elections must give real choice.”

香港民主党(Democratic)主席刘慧卿(Emily Lau)表示：“特首提名人不应存在不合理的限制。选举体制必须向选民提供真正的选择。”

Mr Leung has publicly called on the pan-democrats to vote in support of a “historic outcome” and some opposition lawmakers have said they would consider backing the government if it can secure further concessions from Beijing.

此前，梁振英曾公开呼吁泛民主人士投票支持香港的“历史性成果”。部分反对派立法会议员已表示，如果这么做可以确保中国政府作出进一步让步，他们会考虑支持政府。

Lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the constitutional reform package in mid-June, according to Mr Tsang, and the government needs to win a two-thirds majority in the 70-seat council to pass the bill.

曾钰成表示，立法会议员定于在6月中旬就这一选举改革方案投票。在立法会的70个席位中，香港政府需赢得占三分之二的多数席位，才能通过这一提案。

Alan Leong, leader of the pro-democracy Civic party, says that without any significant concessions from Beijing, which must sign off on the Hong Kong administration’s proposals, he “cannot see any of the 27 pan-democrats going over to the other side”.

泛民主派公民党(Civic)领袖梁家杰(Alan Leong)表示，如果北京方面不做出任何重大让步，他认为“27名泛民主议员都不会改变立场”。香港政府的政改提案最终必须得到北京方面的批准。

Opinion polls by a group of Hong Kong universities show deep divisions over the 2017 election reforms with about 40 per cent of people in favour and the same proportion against.

香港多所大学开展的民调显示，围绕2017年选举改革，香港社会已出现深层分歧，大约40%的被调查者支持该方案，而反对该方案的被调查者也占同样比例。

That worries lawmakers of all colours, who fear that with tensions rising, large demonstrations planned around the vote could spark confrontations with the police and government supporters.

这种状况令来自各阵营的立法会议员感到担忧。他们担心随着局面日趋紧张，选举前后的大型游行示威活动或将引发反对派与警方及政府支持者间的对峙。

A rump of about 100 of the Occupy activists continue to live in several dozen tents on the pavement in front of the legislative council. Mr Tsang, a member of the main pro-Beijing party, says “there has been a continuous stepping up of activities within this occupied area”.

在香港立法会门前，大约还有100位“占中”活跃分子继续生活在人行道上的几十个帐篷中。曾钰成称“在这一被占领地段，抗议活动一直在持续升温。”他来自一个主体上亲北京的政党。

“When it comes to voting on the controversial political reform package, emotions will run high and so the situation can easily get out of hand,” he warns.

他警告说：“每次谈到这一有争议的政治改革方案的投票问题，人们的情绪就会高涨。因此，局面可能很容易失控。”

Ms Lau says that while she hopes the protests will be peaceful, “society is split and some are bitter, so this will be a big test for the new police commissioner”.

刘慧卿表示，虽然她希望抗议能够和平进行，但是“社会是多样化的，有的人更情绪化一些。因此，这对新任警务处处长是个巨大的考验。”

But Simon Siu, who regularly camps out in one of the tents, is more concerned about the Occupy movement falling apart than the upcoming protests spiralling out of control.

不过，一直在帐篷中露营的Simon Siu则更担心占中运动的分裂，而不是即将到来的抗议活动会失控。

“There was a large movement but nothing changed so people are tired of protesting,” says Mr Siu, a 37-year-old electronic goods salesman who is wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with the words “Don’t make me shoot you” over an image of a camera. “We want people to come back but we’re also tired and we’re trying to keep busy to keep our spirits up.”

他说：“曾经轰轰烈烈的运动什么也没有改变。因此，人们对抗议活动已经厌倦了。”Simon Siu今年37岁，是一名电子产品销售员。他穿的T恤衫上绘有一个配着“别让我拍到你(Don't make me shoot you)”字样的摄像头。“我们希望人们回来，不过我们也十分疲惫。我们试图保持忙碌来振作精神。”