中国"单独二孩"政策遇冷
Far fewer couples than expected have applied for permission to have a second child, a year after Beijing announced the relaxation of its one-child policy to encourage births in an ageing China.
在中国政府宣布放松计划生育政策、以求在老龄化的中国鼓励生育一年后，申请生二胎的夫妇数量远低于预期。The National Health and Family Planning Commission announced yesterday that “nearly 1m” couples had applied to have a second child after Beijing decided to allow families where either parent was an only child to bear two. The law had previously granted that concession to urban couples where both parents were only children.
国家卫生和计划生育委员会昨日宣布，在中国政府决定允许夫妇一方为独生子女的家庭可申请生二胎后，有“近100万”对夫妇已提出申请。此前，这一政策只允许城市夫妻二人都是独生子女才能生第二胎。
The government said at the time that about 11m families would become eligible under the relaxed rules, which were implemented province by province from January last year. It estimated that 2m extra children would be born each year under the new policy. But even with nearly 1m couples applying to have a second child, demographic experts say not all will actually have one.
中国政府当时说，自去年1月政策放宽在各省逐步实施后，大概有1100万个家庭将符合生二胎条件。官方估计，新政策推行后，每年将增加200万个新生儿。但即使是在这近100万对申请生二胎的夫妇中，人口统计学专家称实际上并非所有夫妇都将再生一个。
The commission told a press conference the number of applicants was “in line with expert estimation that there would be no more than 2m babies born per year under the new policy”.
卫计委在昨天的新闻发布会上说，申请生二胎的夫妻数量与专家估算的新政策下每年新生儿不会超过200万的情况相符。He Yafu, an expert on the one-child policy, said: “The actual number of newborn second babies is even lower. I estimate it at 600,000 to 700,000, just one-third of the family planning commission’s estimate. This proves the policy relaxation will not spur rapid population growth and the demographic problem in China is continuing to worsen. We will see more proposals . . . this year to urge the government to banish the family planning policy.”
中国计划生育政策专家何亚福说：“新生二孩的实际数量甚至更低。我估计在60万到70万之间，仅是卫计委估算的三分之一。这说明政策放松将不会刺激人口快速增长，而中国的人口结构正继续恶化。今年……我们将看到更多的建议，敦促政府取消计划生育政策。”Opinion polls often show a willingness among parents to bear a second child, but this is often not matched by actual births, demographers say. The revised policy affects many parents in large urban centres, where the cost of bearing an extra child, in terms of both time and money, has become prohibitive.
人口统计学家称，民意调查往往显示父母愿意生育第二个孩子，但这往往与实际生育情况不相符。修订后的政策影响许多生活在大城市的父母，生育二胎的时间和经济成本使他们望而却步。Birth-planning laws already allow so many exceptions that many demographers consider it a misnomer to call it a “one-child” policy. China is facing a critical shortage of labourers caused by 30 years of restricting family size. In 2012 the working-age population of China shrank for the first time.
中国的计划生育法规已经允许了太多的例外，因此许多人口统计学家认为“独生子女”政策已名不副实。30年来对家庭规模的限制，造成了中国当前面临严重的劳动力短缺。2012年，中国劳动年龄人口出现了首次下降。
