安倍晋三宣布将提前选举

Shinzo Abe officially announced plans to dissolve Japan’s parliament on Friday and delay a second increase in consumption taxes by 18 months to April 2017.

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)已正式宣布计划，将在周五解散日本议会，并将把第二轮上调销售税计划向后推迟18个月，至2017年4月。

The prime minister said he had reached the decision “to ensure that Abenomics will succeed in overcoming deflation and will continue to drive economic growth”.

安倍晋三表示，他做出这一决定是为了“确保安倍经济学将在遏制通缩方面取得成功并继续推动经济增长”。

“We need to turn to the public to seek their opinion on this grave, grave decision,” he added.

他补充称：“我们需要就这个非常重大的问题向公众征求意见。”

In a 15-minute speech that already sounded like an election pitch, Mr Abe pointed to an increase in wages and increased employment as the fruits of Abenomics. However, he admitted: “Unfortunately, we’re not yet back on a growth trajectory.”

在听上去像是一次选举宣传的15分钟演讲中，安倍晋三将薪资上涨和就业扩大描述为安倍经济学的成果。然而，他承认：“不幸的是，我们尚未回到增长轨道上去。”

Amid concerns about Japan’s mounting debt, Mr Abe also declared that there would be no further delay to the sales tax rise.

在人们对日本债务日益增加感到担忧之际，安倍晋三还宣布，不会再次推迟上调消费税计划。

“We will achieve both economic revival and fiscal reconstruction,” Mr Abe said.

安倍晋三表示：“我们将实现经济复苏和财政重建双重目标。”

The snap election will take place on December 14, giving parties just 26 days to prepare to go to the polls.

选举将在12月14日进行，日本各党派将仅有26天的时间为选举做准备。

Early news of the poll sent the already weakening Japanese currency lower. The yen fell 0.2 per cent against the dollar in the 20 minutes following a report by the domestic broadcaster that Mr Abe would announce the election on Tuesday evening.

之前有关提前选举的消息推低了已在贬值的日元汇率。日本公共广播电视台NHK之前报道称，预计安倍晋三将在周二晚间宣布提前选举。在这篇报道发表后的20分钟内，日元兑美元汇率下跌0.2%。

Talk emerged last week that the Japanese leader may seek a popular mandate to push back the second consumption tax rise. The first, effective in April, was blamed for a sharp fall in Japan’s second-quarter output.

上周有传言称，安倍晋三正寻求民众对推迟第二轮上调消费税计划的支持。第一次上调消费税是在今年4月施行的，人们批评该计划导致日本第二季度产出大幅下滑。

On its own, “the decision not to hike means the economy should be stronger over the next couple of years than would otherwise be the case”, according to Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

资本经济(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，就政策本身而言，“不上调消费税的决定意味着，与上调消费税相比，未来几年不上调应会令日本经济更为强劲。”

“That in turn should help the Bank of Japan by increasing price pressures. But we still expect inflation to fall short of the 2 per cent target, so more monetary easing is still likely to be required.”

“通过加大价格压力，应会对日本央行(Bank of Japan)有所帮助。但我们仍预期，通胀率将低于2%的目标，因此仍可能需要更多货币宽松政策。”

Conversely, as analysts at Credit Suisse write in a research note, there is a risk that Mr Abe’s “popularity declines to levels that force the return of pre-Abe policies”.

相反，正如瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师在一份研究报告中所写的那样，这种观点的主要风险在于安倍晋三的“受欢迎程度下滑，迫使安倍恢复其上台之前的政策。”