克里米亚斩不断对乌克兰的依赖

Crimeans voted on Sunday to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, but the bonds of a Soviet-era infrastructure will be harder to break.

克里米亚周日投票同意脱离乌克兰、加入俄罗斯，但该地区在基础设施方面与乌克兰的联系却很难切断。

The dry, windswept peninsula has few of the resources to support the fabled resorts and ports for which it is valued. With no land bridge to Russia, it relies on Ukraine for about 25% of its gas, 70% of its water, and 90% of its electricity, all of which it imports over a small strip of land that connects it to the mainland.

干燥、大风肆虐的克里米亚半岛资源稀少，无法提供该地区作为度假胜地和港口所必需的资源。克里米亚与俄罗斯没有陆地相连，该地区25%的天然气、70%的水和90%的电力供应都依赖乌克兰，所有这些资源都是通过一条与乌克兰大陆相连的地峡进入克里米亚的。

It is a dependence that could prove explosive, as was shown by Russia's seizure of a gas-distribution plant on mainland Ukraine over the weekend, suggesting that Moscow could try to grab other infrastructure to secure supplies into Crimea.

克里米亚对乌克兰的这种依赖可能是一触即发的，上周末俄罗斯占领了乌克兰大陆的一处天然气配送站也证明了这一点。俄罗斯还可能会尝试占领其他的基础设施，以确保克里米亚地区的资源供应。

A Crimean government spokesman said the move was necessary because of a shut-off at the station that left parts of eastern Crimea without heat or electricity. The Ukrainian government denied that there had been a shut-off.

克里米亚政府一位发言人表示，俄罗斯此举是有必要的，因为如果该天然气配送站的供应被切断，那么克里米亚东部的部分地区将不得不停暖或停电。乌克兰政府否认切断了对克里米亚的供应。

The loss of Crimea is a political body blow to the new government from Kiev, but it also relieves Ukraine of an annual $1 billion budgetary drain. If Moscow follows through with its annexation of Crimea, the peninsula's lingering dependence on Ukraine for sustenance could ironically give Ukraine some leverage in dealing with Moscow.

失去克里米亚对乌克兰新政府而言是一次政治上的打击，但这也让乌克兰从此摆脱了每年10亿美元的预算支出。具有讽刺意味的是，如果俄罗斯坚持合并克里米亚，克里米亚对于乌克兰的依赖反而会让乌克兰政府获得一些应对俄罗斯的筹码。

Kiev can theoretically cut the utilities' supply to the breakaway region, although when it comes to electricity it may be disruptive to the national electricity grid system.

理论上，乌克兰可以切断克里米亚的资源供应，但就电力而言，如果切断电力供应可能会给乌克兰全国电网系统造成破坏。

'Ukraine may limit gas, electricity, water supplies to Crimea, close the border to the delivery of goods and cut off budget money supply,' said Oleh Ustenko, director of the Center for World Economics and International Relations at the Ukrainian Academy of Science.

乌克兰科学院(Ukrainian Academy of Science)世界经济与国际关系中心(Center for World Economics and International Relations)主任Oleh Ustenko表示，乌克兰可以限制对克里米亚的天然气、电力和水供应，封锁边境不让商品进入克里米亚，并解除财政供养关系。

Crimean officials have put on a brave face, saying the peninsula may survive without supplies from the mainland, and without support of the budget. Analysts say Ukraine is highly unlikely to order a cutoff of utilities to Crimea because of the havoc it would create on the peninsula.

克里米亚官员摆出了一副很有信心的面孔，称在没有乌克兰资源以及预算支持的情况下，克里米亚依然能够生存下去。分析师说，乌克兰下令切断对克里米亚水电气供应的可能性极小，因为如此一来就将在克里米亚造成一场浩劫。

But the supply lines into Crimea are fragile and easily threatened if fighting were to break out between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Crimea covers about 10% of its electricity needs through small generation plants, and the rest is brought in through two sets of power lines from mainland Ukraine.

但是这条“补给线”相当脆弱，如果俄乌之间爆发战争，轻易就能被破坏。克里米亚电力需求中仅10%左右由当地小发电厂解决，其余全部靠从乌克兰内陆铺设过来的两组输电线供应。

Its water is brought in through the North Crimean Canal, built in the Soviet era and finished in 1971. Crimea has enough water to supply households, but it relies on the mainland for water to irrigate fields and to use in factories.

克里米亚的生活用水来自前苏联时代修建、1971年完工的北克里米亚运河(North Crimean Canal)，但灌溉和工业用水还是依靠乌克兰内陆供应。

The peninsula satisfies about three quarters of its natural-gas demands from its own sources, thanks to booming offshore production.

克里米亚半岛约四分之三的天然气需求靠自己解决，这要得益于兴盛的海上油气开采活动。

The uncertainties over supplies into Crimea as well as political instability will scare off tourists, 70% of whom were from Ukraine last year. Crimean infrastructure and hotels have languished from a lack of investment.

水电气等民生物资供应的不确定性以及政局的不稳定将吓跑游客，去年赴克里米亚旅游的游客有70%来自乌克兰。由于缺少投资，克里米亚当地许多基础设施和酒店正在老化衰败。

'Now Crimea has rolled back by years, when it comes to investment,' said Mr. Ustenko.

Ustenko说，在投资方面，克里米亚已经倒退回了许多年前的水平。

Even before the crisis, Mr. Ustenko said that many investors steered clear of Crimea because of infrastructure problems and high levels of criminal and 'shadow economy' activity. Now, it will now be out of the question for international, Ukrainian or Russian private investors to put new money into the region, he said.

Ustenko说，哪怕是在危机爆发前，许多投资者就已经避开克里米亚，因为当地的基础设施问题、高犯罪率以及“影子经济”活动。他说，现在，国际、乌克兰和俄罗斯的私人投资者根本不可能往克里米亚投入新资金。

The Russian government will by default now have to be the main source of investment for Crimea. A senior official in the Russian government said Moscow realizes the costs, which may amount to $4 billion in the first year alone.

俄罗斯政府无疑将成为克里米亚的主要投资者。一位俄政府高级官员说，莫斯科知道由此要付出的代价，仅第一年就可能需要向克里米亚投入40亿美元资金。

The move to annex Crimea is popular within Russia, however. 'It is a once in lifetime opportunity, and no one will quarrel about the price tag,' the person said.

但是把克里米亚纳入俄联邦的举措很受俄罗斯人的欢迎。这位官员说，这是千载难逢的机会，没人会在意“出价”。