乌克兰革命光环因经济困境失色

A year ago, Artem, a 19-year-old student, joined the mass protests in Kiev that toppled Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president. This week he was on the streets again but inspired by more prosaic complaints: rising heating prices, spiralling inflation and a collapsing currency.

一年前，19岁的学生艾顿(Artem)在基辅加入了推翻乌克兰总统维克多•亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的大规模抗议活动。本周，他再次走上街头，但动机是更为琐碎的生活抱怨：不断高涨的供暖价格、螺旋式上升的通胀以及汇率暴跌的货币。

“I was here on Maidan [Square] a year ago taking part in the revolution, but not for such deep economic pain. Frankly, our people simply can’t swallow it,” said Artem, joined by 1,000 other protesters outside a Kiev mayor’s office now occupied by Vitali Klitschko, the boxer turned protest leader.

“一年前，我在独立(Maidan)广场上参加革命，但不是为了如此深切的经济痛苦。坦白讲，我们的人民现在根本无法承受这种痛苦，”艾顿称。他与1000多人一起，在昔日的抗议活动领袖、现在成了基辅市长的前拳击手维塔利•克利钦科(Vitali Klitschko)的办公室外抗议。

Volodymyr, 58, said that of his 2,500 hryvnia ($90) monthly pension, 70 per cent went to utilities and basic costs, up from 30 per cent a year ago. “If they raise [heating Bills] again by the 40 per cent that is planned, what will I eat?” he asked.

58岁的弗拉基米尔(Volodymyr)称，在他每个月2500格里夫纳（合90美元）的退休金中，70%都用于交水电燃气费和基本花销，而1年前这部分仅占30%。“如果他们再按计划将取暖费提高40%，我拿什么吃饭？”他问道。

The protests reflect how the euphoria of Ukraine’s revolution has given way to a harsh economic reality. The hryvnia yesterday touched a record low of 33.78 to the dollar after a poorly communicated central bank move to tighten restrictions on currency trading spooked markets. The bank later backtracked.

抗议反映出乌克兰革命成功引发的欣喜已经让位于残酷的经济现实。不久前，乌克兰央行收紧了对外汇交易的限制，这一沟通糟糕的举动惊吓了市场，格里夫纳兑美元的汇率本周四一度触及1美元兑33.78格里夫纳的低点，创下了新低纪录。乌克兰央行随后收回了禁令。

Anecdotal reports suggest some Ukrainians are panic-buying basic goods to guard against further devaluation of the hryvnia, which traded at eight to the dollar before the anti-Yanukovich protests began in late 2013.

坊间传闻似乎表明，一些乌克兰人正在恐慌地抢购日常用品，以缓解格里夫纳进一步贬值带来的影响。在2013年底反对亚努科维奇的抗议开始前，格里夫纳兑美元汇率为1美元兑8格里夫纳。

Yesterday’s protest was small compared with those that ousted the president last year and showed signs of being paid for by opponents of Kiev’s new, pro-western government. Still, many of the sentiments seemed genuine — an ominous sign that larger crowds and more instability could emerge in the war-torn country should the economic crisis spiral out of control.

与去年推翻亚努科维奇的抗议相比，本周四的抗议规模并不大，而且有迹象表明受到了反对势力的收买。反对势力不满目前亲西方的乌克兰新政府。可话说回来，抗议中流露出的许多情绪似乎是真实的——这是一种不祥的征兆：一旦经济危机失控，这个饱受战乱的国家会遭遇更大规模的抗议和更多不稳定。

The government is struggling simultaneously to keep control of eastern regions in the face of an uprising by Russian-backed separatists, prevent economic meltdown and push through sweeping reforms. Those reforms will benefit the country longer term but also cause more short-term pain for many.

乌克兰政府要同时应对多个挑战：面对俄罗斯撑腰的分裂主义者所制造的叛乱，保持对东部地区的控制；防止经济崩溃；推行全面改革。这些改革措施长期而言将造福国家，但也对很多人造成了较大的短期痛苦。

Ukraine’s output shrank by up to 7.5 per cent last year after Russia annexed Crimea and fomented war in eastern regions that once accounted for about one-sixth of its economy. Billions of dollars fled the country. State coffers are almost empty, with foreign exchange reserves down to one month of import cover. With bad debts mounting, one foreign investor calls the state of the banking system catastrophic.

在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚地区并在乌克兰东部（曾在乌克兰经济中占比1/6）煽起战火后，去年乌克兰的产出萎缩7.5%。巨额资金逃离该国。国库接近空虚，外汇储备下降至只够覆盖1个月的进口。坏账不断堆积，一名外国投资者形容乌克兰银行体系的现状是灾难性的。

The government of Arseniy Yatseniuk, prime minister, hoped a staff-level agreement on a new, four-year, $17.5bn International Monetary Fund bailout — reached on the same day

乌克兰总理阿尔谢尼•亚采纽克(Arseniy Yatseniuk)领导的政府希望，就国际货币基金组织(IMF)为期四年、总值175亿美元的纾困计划达成的工作层协议——两周前乌克兰东部最新停火协议签署的当天达成——能够稳定事态。但是，目前停火协议尚未实施，IMF的第一笔资金直到下个月才能发放。投资者担心这并不足以解决问题。

the latest ceasefire in east Ukraine was signed two weeks ago — would stabilise matters. But the ceasefire has yet to be implemented and the first IMF money will not arrive until next month. Investors fret it is not enough.

乌克兰财政部长纳塔莉•杰里斯科(Natalie Jaresko)反驳称，这笔纾困资金“相对GDP的比重是IMF援助项目史上最大的一笔”。杰里斯科是一位干劲十足的美籍乌克兰裔，曾在美国国务院工作，也曾做过基金经理。她称，市场过分估计了可能发生的情况和乌克兰所需的帮助。“我确实相信我们得到的援助足以恢复信心——在其他所有条件不变的情况下，”她称，“关键在于重建储备，重建市场对银行体系的信心。”

Natalie Jaresko, finance minister, counters that the bailout “as a percentage of GDP is one of the largest IMF programmes in history”. Ms Jaresko, an energetic Ukrainian-American who has worked both at the US state department and as a fund manager, says the market overestimated what was possible and what was needed. “I do believe that the support that we have received is sufficient to restore confidence, all other things being equal,” she says. “It’s about rebuilding reserves, it’s about rebuilding confidence in the banking system.”

美国、欧盟(EU)和世界银行(World Bank)等其它援助方将另行提供数十亿美元的资金，来补充IMF的纾困计划。乌克兰还希望与债权人达成“高达150亿美元”的债务重组。

The US, EU, World Bank and others are due to supplement the IMF funding with billions more. Ukraine is also targeting “up to $15bn” in a debt restructuring with bondholders.

然而，杰里斯科向英国《金融时报》表示，恢复信心不仅在于纾困资金：还要加强法治、解决无处不在的腐败问题并改善商业环境，用她的话来说就是“在这里推动实实在在的改变”。推翻亚努科维奇的抗议者曾经要求的这些改革措施，如今成了国际放贷方提出的条件。但是，战争和经济低迷使得实现这些改革甚至更具挑战性。

But restoring confidence, Ms Jaresko told the Financial Times, is not just about the bailout: it is about reinforcing the rule of law, tackling ubiquitous corruption and improving the business climate or, as she puts it, delivering “real and true change here”. Such reforms were demanded by the protesters who ousted Mr Yanukovich and are now a condition of international lenders. But war and the economic slump have made them even more challenging to achieve.

当务之急是解决能源行业的问题，国有天然气销售垄断企业——乌克兰石油天然气公司(Naftogaz)仍在以远低于成本的价格向家庭提供天然气。这种实质上的补贴推高了乌克兰的预算赤字，也为腐败套利计划创造了机会。

A pressing priority is the energy sector, where Naftogaz, the state gas distribution monopoly, still supplies households at far below the cost price. What is in effect a subsidy pushes up Ukraine’s budget deficit and creates opportunities for corrupt arbitrage schemes.

在IMF的压力之下，乌克兰去年将天然气价格提高了约50%。这促使消费者节约能源——这是另一个需要优先考虑的问题。

Under IMF pressure, Ukraine raised domestic gas prices by about 50 per cent last year. That prompted consumers to save energy — another priority.

但是，就美元收入而言，格里夫纳贬值完全抵消了能源提价的效果。现在政府承诺进一步提高价格，以确保乌克兰石油天然气公司最迟在2017年4月达到收支平衡。

But the hryvnia’s fall more than cancelled out the effect of the tariff rise in terms of dollar receipts. Now the government is committed to further tariff rises to ensure Naftogaz fully covers its costs by April 2017.

尽管最贫困的客户将得到针对性补助的保护，但参加抗议的很多退休金领取者抱怨称，生活成本增加以及货币贬值会抵消这些补助。

Even though the poorest customers are to be protected by targeted subsidies, many pensioners at yesterday’s protest complained that rising costs and currency devaluation would wipe out such benefits.

抗议活动的组织者、身为教师的尤里•佩伦丘克(Yuri Perenchuk)称：“从IMF和西方国家获得的数十亿美元所谓援助不会惠及我们普通人。”

Yuri Perenchuk, a teacher and protest organiser, says: “All these billions of so-called assistance from the IMF and the west are not making their way to us regular people.”

刚刚从“太多的青年接连倒下”的前线返回的35岁士兵康斯坦丁(Konstantyn)的态度更绝望：“我认为格里夫纳以及我国的整个经济都在崩溃。”