乌克兰革命乱成一团 仍值得支持

Most politicians try to say something uplifting when they take office. Arseniy Yatseniuk took a different approach. Accepting the post of interim prime minister of Ukraine in February, his opening words were: “Welcome to hell.”

大多数政客在就职时会试图说一些鼓舞士气的话。阿尔谢尼•亚采纽克(Arseniy Yatseniuk)则没有这样做。今年2月，他在接受乌克兰临时总理一职后的开场词是：“欢迎来到地狱。”

Sitting in Mr Yatseniuk’s office in Kiev late last week, I asked him if the job had proved as hellish as anticipated? The prime minister, a gaunt 39-year-old, removed his glasses and rubbed his face wearily. “Worse,” he said. “We face the Russian military, Russian-backed terrorism, the economy is insolvent, our own military has been dismantled, the police are disorientated. The last government stole everything they could.”

上周末尾，在亚采纽克位于基辅的办公室里，我问他，这份工作是否如预想的那般恐怖？这位39岁、一脸憔悴的总理取下眼镜，疲惫地揉揉脸，说：“比预想的还可怕。我们面临俄罗斯军队和俄罗斯支持的恐怖主义，经济崩溃，我们自己的军队遭到解散，警察士气涣散。上一届政府把一切能偷走的都偷走了。”

The day after our conversation, the Ukrainian government responded to this desperate situation by launching an offensive to retake buildings and territory in the east of the country that had fallen under the control of pro-Russian separatists. The authorities in Kiev felt that if they did not fight back, they risked losing the eastern half of their country by default.

谈话次日，针对这种令人绝望的境况，乌克兰政府发起了攻势，开始收复乌克兰东部被亲俄分裂主义者攻占的大楼和领土。乌克兰当局觉得，如果不回击，他们可能会眼睁睁失去东部那半边国家。

But the fighting in towns such as Slavyansk and Donetsk carries its own risks. The large number of civilian casualties, particularly in Odessa, further west, opens the government in Kiev to charges of brutality. The fact that much of the fighting is between Ukrainians feeds into the Russian narrative – that Ukraine is a deeply divided country, many of whose citizens look to Russia for protection. Above all, the fighting risks giving Russia an excuse to send troops into Ukraine, under the guise of a “peacekeeping mission”.

但在斯拉维扬斯克(Slavyansk)和顿涅茨克(Donetsk)这样的城市作战，本身也有风险。大量平民伤亡，特别是在更靠西的敖德萨(Odessa)，让乌克兰政府面临被控实施暴行的风险。战斗双方多为乌克兰人，这给了俄罗斯口实；俄方声称乌克兰内部严重分裂，许多乌克兰公民指望俄罗斯提供保护。最重要的是，开战可能为俄罗斯提供借口，让其能够打着“维和行动”的旗号向乌克兰出兵。

The Ukrainian government knows that it would lose a conventional war with Russia, whose military is larger and better-equipped. Russia also has an air superiority of more than 80:1. The Ukrainians would like Nato to declare a “no-fly zone” over their country, in the event of a Russian invasion. But that is a daydream. The Americans are not going to shoot down Russian jets.

乌克兰政府知道，与俄罗斯打常规战，自己肯定会输；俄军的规模更大、装备也更精良。俄罗斯的空军实力也为乌方的80倍以上。乌克兰希望，如果俄罗斯入侵，北约(Nato)能宣布乌克兰上空为“禁飞区”。但那是白日做梦。美国人是不会动手打俄罗斯飞机的。

The Russian parliament has already pre-authorised an invasion of Ukraine and a large Russian army is hovering on the Ukrainian border. But what does President Vladimir Putin want? Mr Yatseniuk argues that “Putin has no limits . . .  He wants to become the emperor of a new type of Soviet empire.”

俄罗斯议会已经预先批准入侵乌克兰，大量俄军正在乌克兰边境集结。但俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)到底想要什么？亚采纽克称，“普京没有底线……他想成为一种新型苏维埃帝国的皇帝。”

But many in Kiev still find the thought of a full-scale Russian invasion hard to credit. When I asked Victor Pinchuk, one of Ukraine’s richest and most internationally connected businessmen, if Russia might seek to go all the way to Kiev, he rolled his eyes and said “science-fiction”. An alternative theory is that Mr Putin simply wants to create enough chaos in Ukraine to prevent a presidential election, planned for May 25 – as well as thwarting any thought of Ukraine moving closer to the EU.

但基辅的很多人仍然不相信俄罗斯会全面入侵。维克托•平丘克(Victor Pinchuk)是乌克兰最富有、与国际联系最为紧密的商人之一。当我问他，俄军是否会一路攻入基辅时，他转了转眼睛，说，“天方夜谭”。另外一种说法是，普京只不过想在乌克兰制造足够的混乱，以搅黄计划于5月25日举行的总统选举，并挫败乌克兰进一步向欧盟(EU)靠拢的任何企图。

But the military aspect is just the most high-profile part of the struggle for Ukraine. The government in Kiev also needs to win a propaganda battle and a war on corruption.

但军事问题只不过是乌克兰面临的困难中最显眼的部分。乌克兰政府还需要打赢一场舆论战和一场反腐战。

The Russian media is pumping out the message that the government in Kiev is run by “fascists” and anti-Semites, who are said to be the direct descendants of those Ukrainian partisans who fought with the Nazis against Josef Stalin’s Soviet Union. That message has been widely transmitted in eastern Ukraine and has also found an audience in parts of the EU. But Ukrainian Jews, some of whom are serving in the Kiev government, are unconvinced. When I put the allegations of fascism and anti-Semitism to Mr Pinchuk, Ukraine’s most prominent Jewish businessman, he replied, succinctly: “It’s bullshit.”

俄罗斯媒体大肆宣称，乌克兰政府掌握在一群“法西斯主义者”和“反犹分子”手中，这些人据说是当年与纳粹一道、跟约瑟夫•斯大林(Josef Stalin)领导的苏联打仗的那部分乌克兰人的后代。这种说法在乌克兰东部广为流传，在欧盟一些地方也不乏听众。但乌克兰籍犹太人并不相信这种说法，他们中的一些也在乌克兰政府中任职。平丘克是乌克兰最知名的犹太商人。当我向他转述有关乌克兰政府法西斯主义和反犹的说法时，他简洁地答道：“胡说八道。”

What is true is that the red-and-black flag of wartime Ukrainian nationalism is very visible on the barricades that still remain on Kiev’s Independence Square. When I asked some of the demonstrators, clad in military fatigues and camped under the flag, why they were still on the streets, one replied: “To make sure that the new government does not steal the money that is coming from the IMF.”

千真万确的则是，基辅独立广场(Independence Square)的路障还在，上面仍有非常显眼的黑红相间的旗帜，那是二战期间的乌克兰民族主义象征。我问一些穿着军服、在旗帜下扎营的抗议者，为什么还在这里抗议，其中一人的回答是：“为了确保新政府不会偷走国际货币基金组织(IMF)给的钱。”

That concern seems reasonable enough. A point that the governments in Moscow and Kiev actually seem to agree on is that Ukraine has been miserably misgoverned by a succession of corrupt and kleptocratic governments. Mr Yatseniuk is generally regarded as straight. But, even as the country faces the prospect of civil war or invasion, there are still interim ministers who, with remarkable single-mindedness, are said to be intent primarily on stealing.

这种担忧看上去合情合理。俄罗斯和乌克兰政府事实上似乎都同意的一点是，乌克兰不幸地受到一届又一届腐败盗贼政府的糟糕统治。人们普遍认为亚采纽克还比较正直。但即便在国家面临内战或入侵的情况下，有一些临时官员据说仍然一门心思打算捞一笔，这种冥顽不灵简直令人难以置信。

The image of a corrupt, chaotic and divided Ukraine – killing and robbing its own citizens – suits the Russian government very well. If Russia can convince the outside world that Ukraine, which only gained independence in 1991, is not really a “proper” country, it will be much easier to dismember.

乌克兰给外界的腐败、混乱和分裂印象，包括杀害和抢劫它自己的国民，正中俄罗斯政府下怀。如果俄罗斯能说服外界相信，1991年才独立的乌克兰，其实不是一个“合格”的国家，那么分裂乌克兰将变得容易得多。

So it is important to remember some basic facts. While there clearly is a cultural divide between eastern and western Ukraine, 91 per cent of the country’s citizens voted to be an independent nation in 1991, with a majority in all regions. Millions of Ukrainians died in the Stalin-imposed famines of the 1930s, which gives modern Ukrainians good grounds to be suspicious of Russian offers of “protection”.

因此，记住一些基本事实很重要。尽管乌克兰东部和西部存在明显的文化差异，但在1991年，该国有91%的公民投票支持乌克兰成为独立国家，并且独立在乌克兰的所有地区都取得了多数人的支持。上世纪30年代，数百万乌克兰人在那场斯大林造成的饥荒中死亡，这让现代乌克兰人有充分理由对俄罗斯提出的“保护”打个问号。

When thousands of Ukrainians demonstrated in Kiev earlier this year – and more than a hundred died – they were not demanding a “fascist” government. Instead they were calling for an end to corruption and for eventual membership of the EU. Those goals are both worthy and attainable. Amid all the current chaos and violence, they still deserve support.

今年早些时候，数千名乌克兰人在基辅抗议，一百多人在抗议引发的冲突中丧生。那时他们要求的并不是一个“法西斯”式政府。相反，他们要求的是终结腐败、并最终加入欧盟。这两个目标是值得实现的，并且可以实现。尽管目前局面混乱不堪、充斥着暴力，他们仍值得支持。