特朗普的经济计划真会造福劳动阶级
Following a brief market plunge, the President-elect’s speech on Tuesday night was more conciliatory than many expected and emphasised his commitment to infrastructure investment.
在短暂的市场暴跌后，当选总统特朗普在上周二晚的演讲比很多人预期的更加温和，强调了他对基础设施投资的承诺。
Investors have, on balance, concluded that the combination of a shift to very expansionary fiscal policy and major reductions in regulation in sectors ranging from energy to finance to drug pricing will raise demand and reflate the American economy.
总的来说，投资者的结论是，向极具扩张性的财政政策转变、结合大幅削减对从能源到金融再到药品定价等多个领域的监管，将促进需求并刺激美国经济。
The result has been a rise in real interest rates and inflation expectations, along with a strong stock market and a strong dollar.
结果是实际利率和通胀预期上升，同时股市走高、美元表现强劲。
Experience suggests, however, that initial market responses to major political events are poor predictors of their ultimate impact.
然而，经验表明，市场对于重大政治事件的最初反应，通常无法准确预示事件的最终影响。
The late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch made an extensive study of the results of Populist economic programmes around the world, finding that while they sometimes had immediate positive results, over the medium- and long-term they were catastrophic for the working class in whose name they were launched.
已故的麻省理工学院(MIT)经济学家鲁迪格.多恩布施(Rudiger Dornbusch)在广泛研究了世界各地民粹主义经济计划的结果后发现，尽管这些计划有时会产生立竿见影的正面结果，但是从中期和长期来看，这些打着造福劳动阶级旗号推出的计划会对劳动阶级造成灾难性的打击。
This could be the fate of the Trump programme given its design errors, implausible assumptions and reckless disregard for global economics.
鉴于特朗普计划的设计错误、不合理的假设以及对全球经济状况的草率忽视，特朗普计划可能也会难逃这样的命运。
I have long been a strong advocate of debt-financed public investment in the context of low interest rates and a decaying US infrastructure,
我长期以来一直非常赞成在利率水平较低以及美国基础设施陈旧的背景下，以债务融资进行公共投资。
So I was glad to see Mr Trump emphasise it.
因此，看到特朗普强调这一点我很高兴。
Unfortunately, the plan presented by his advisers, Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, suggests an approach based on tax credits for equity investment and total private sector participation that will not cover the most important projects, not reach many of the most important investors, and involve substantial mis-targeting of public resources.
遗憾的是，他的顾问彼得.纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)和威尔伯.罗斯(Wilbur Ross)提出的方案表明，该计划的实现方式将基于为股权投资和全体私人部门参与提供税务抵免，不会覆盖一些最重要的项目、触及不到很多最重要的投资者、并且将涉及公共资源的大量错配。
Many of the highest return infrastructure investments — such as improving roads, repairing 60,000 structurally deficient bridges, upgrading schools or modernising the air traffic control system — do not generate a commercial return and so are excluded from his plan.
很多回报最高的基础设施投资——比如改善道路状况、修复60000座存在结构性缺陷的危桥、升级学校设施和空中交通管制系统——不会带来商业回报，因此被排除在特朗普的计划之外。
Nor can the non-taxable pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds that are the most promising sources of capital for infrastructure take advantage of the program.
享受免税待遇的养老基金、捐赠基金和主权财富基金这类最有可能为基础设施提供资金的机构，也无法受益于该计划。
I am optimistic regarding the efficacy of fiscal expansion.
我看好财政扩张的效果。
But any responsible economist has to recognise that, past a point, it can lead to some combination of excessive foreign borrowing, inflation and even financial crisis.
但是任何负责的经济学家都不得不承认，超过某个度，财政扩张可能会导致出现以下三种情况中的一种或多种：外债过高、通胀、甚至是金融危机。
As Dornbusch showed, in emerging markets this can happen quite quickly.
正如多恩布施表明的那样，在新兴市场，这种局面可能会很快形成。
In the US the process would take longer.
在美国，该过程耗时会更长。
Even without taking account of the likely costs of the infrastructure plan (which the Trump team badly underestimates) or the propodefenceense build-up, the Trump tax reform proposals are too expensive.
即使不考虑特朗普的基础设施计划（特朗普团队严重低估了该计划的成本）以及巩固国防提议的可能成本，特朗普的税制改革提议也太过昂贵了。
Many, like the proposed abolition of the estate tax, will only benefit the high-saving wealthy.
就像废除遗产税的提议一样，很多提议只会有益于储蓄率较高的富人。
While drastic changes in the proposed domestic programme are necessary for it to work, the general direction of increasing public investment, reforming taxes and adjusting regulation is appropriate.
尽管特朗普针对国内事务所提出的计划需要做出剧烈改变才能奏效，但是该计划增加公共投资、改革税制以及调整监管的总体方向是恰当的。
The same cannot be said of Mr Trump’s global plan, which rests on a misunderstanding of how the world economy operates.
特朗普针对全球的计划则不然，后者是基于他对世界经济运行方式的错误理解。
Consider the immediate effects of Mr Trump’s victory.
考虑一下特朗普获胜后的直接影响。
The Mexican peso has depreciated about 10 per cent relative to the dollar over fears of new protectionist policies, and many other emerging market currencies have also fallen sharply.
由于市场担心美国会出台新的保护主义政策，墨西哥比索兑美元汇率下跌约10%，很多其他新兴市场货币也急剧下跌。
The impact of this change is to raise the cost of anything the US exports to Mexico and to lower the cost of anything Mexico exports to the US.
这一变化的影响是增加了美国向墨西哥出口任何东西的成本、而降低了墨西哥向美国出口任何东西的成本。
It will also make Mexico and other emerging markets much cheaper relative to the US for global companies.
对于全球企业而言，这还将使墨西哥和其他新兴市场相对美国的成本更加低廉。
So US workers, particularly in manufacturing, will see increased pressure.
因此美国的工人（特别是制造业工人），将承受更大压力。
The plan seems to assume that we can pressure countries not to let their currencies depreciate, as suggested by the intention to have the new treasury secretary name China as an exchange rate manipulator.
该计划似乎假定我们可以迫使他国不让其货币贬值，正如特朗普让新财长把中国定为汇率操纵国的打算所显示的那样。
This is ludicrous.
这是荒唐的。
While there are reasonable arguments that China manipulated its exchange rate for commercial advantage in the past, the reality is that for the past year the country has intervened to prop up its exchange rate.
尽管有合理证据表明中国过去曾为了贸易利益而操纵汇率，但是事实是中国过去一年一直通过干预支撑人民币汇率。
The same is true of most emerging markets.
大多数新兴市场也是一样。
Not even US presidents with political mandates can repeal the laws of economics.
即便是拥有政治授权的美国总统也不能推翻经济规律。
Populist economics will play out differently in the US than in emerging markets.
在美国实施民粹主义经济计划的过程将不同于在新兴市场实施同类计划的过程。
But the results will be no better.
但是结果会一样糟糕。
All with a stake in the global economy must hope that now, as has happened often in the past, a US president faced with the responsibility of governing preserves the valid core of campaign economic plans while making major adjustments.
如今，所有参与全球经济的国家肯定都期望，正如过去通常的情况一样，面对治理责任的美国总统可以在保留竞选经济纲领中站得住脚的核心要素的同时，对该纲领做出重大调整。
