特朗普背叛美国中产阶级

It was fitting that Donald Trump was on the way to the Vatican when he came out with his US budget. Only a pope could hear a confession as egregious as President Trump’s fiscal plan. Pope Francis champions “social capitalism”, a philosophy that values each member of society. Mr Trump’s budget would decimate support for America’s poorest to fund a tax bonanza for its wealthiest. His budget achieves balance through numerological voodoo. Rarely has a fiscal document relied on such dark accounting.

美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在去梵蒂冈的路上推出了他的财政预算提案，这一安排堪称贴切。也只有教皇才能倾听像该提案这般骇人的忏悔。教皇方济各(Pope Francis)支持“社会资本主义”，其理念是尊重社会的每一位成员。而特朗普的财政预算将大幅减少对美国最贫穷人群的支持，以便为针对最富裕人群的减税买单。他的预算仅靠数字巫术实现平衡。很少有哪份财政文件是建立在这样的暗箱会计手法之上的。

It is a blueprint for epic betrayal. Mr Trump’s campaign was about helping the US middle classes. Now he wants to denude them of what cushion there is. In addition to the cuts for the needy, such as food stamps, the budget would wipe out higher education funding. Subsidies for those who cannot afford college loans would be eliminated. Tax incentives to encourage those on lower wages to stay in work — the highly effective earned income tax credit — would be heavily cut. Investment in research, job training, opioid treatment and scholarships would fall sharply. The only spending increases would come in the defence budget and for US-Mexico border security.

这是一份全面背叛的蓝图。特朗普的竞选主题就是帮助美国的中产阶级。如今他却想要剥夺他们现有的保障。除了削减面向贫困人群的福利，例如食品券，这份预算还将砍掉高等教育拨款，取消对无力负担大学贷款者的补贴，并大幅削减为鼓励低收入人群继续工作而给予他们的税收优惠——高度有效的劳动所得税抵免(earned income tax credit)。此外，预算还将大幅减少对研究、职业培训、阿片类治疗和奖学金的投入。只有国防预算和美墨边境安全方面的支出有所增长。

On top of that, Mr Trump’s budget commits the deadly sin of electoral suicide. The consolation is that he will find it hard to persuade his Republican colleagues to push most of it through.

最重要的是，特朗普的预算犯了“选举自杀”这条死罪。令人安慰的是，特朗普会发现很难说服他的共和党同僚们通过预算的大部分内容。

That said, Mr Trump has set the limits of America’s economic agenda. It trades investment in people for Gatsby-scale windfalls. It sacrifices budgetary common sense for magical thinking. Most of all, it robs the federal government of the tools to address America’s challenges.

话虽如此，特朗普仍由此设定了美国经济议程的限度：牺牲对人的投资，以换取盖茨比(Gatsby)级别的巨额财富；放弃制定预算的常识，代之以奇幻的思维。最重要的是，联邦政府将因此失去应对美国挑战的工具。

Four of Mr Trump’s departments — education, housing, energy and the Environmental Protection Agency — are headed by people who want to shut down the agencies they lead. The irony is that Mr Trump is laying the ground for a hundred more Trump insurgencies. Somewhere out there, another Trump lies in waiting. The next one will really drain the swamp. Believe me.

特朗普政府有四个部门——教育部、住房和城市发展部、能源部和国家环境保护局——的负责人希望关掉自己领导的部门。讽刺的是，特朗普的作为在为100次“特朗普式起义”播下种子。还有其他的“特朗普”在某处伺机而动。这一个真的会“抽干沼泽”。相信我。

But Mr Trump’s least forgivable sin is waste. Journalists experience the Trump presidency as a field day of leaks from an out-of-control operation. History will record it as an act of gross negligence.

但特朗普最不可饶恕的罪责是浪费。记者们觉得，特朗普任期就像某个失控行动，天天有现成的爆料送上门来。历史将认定他的作为有严重过失。

Mr Trump was driven to victory by the anguish of middle America against the elites. It followed the longest period in US history of stagnant middle incomes. This included rising mortality rates for large swaths of middle America, and a collapse in morale of the blue-collar male. Their most telling symptom is an addiction to painkillers. Mr Trump’s success was the manifestation of a middle class that has lost faith in liberal democracy. It turns out he is offering a cure worse than the disease.

当初把特朗普推向胜利的，是饱受痛苦的中产阶级对精英们造反。此前美国经历了史上最漫长的中等收入停滞。这包括美国中部大片地区不断上升的死亡率，以及蓝领男性士气崩溃。最说明问题的症状是服用止痛药成瘾。特朗普的成功说明美国的中产阶级对自由民主体制丧失信心。但结果证明，他拿出的疗法比疾病本身更可怕。

What will be the fallout? The first is that it will deepen the trench that spawned Mr Trump’s victory. The two likeliest pieces of Mr Trump’s agenda to go through are the tax cuts and the abolition of Obamacare. The first will shower society’s winners with more gains. The second will deprive its losers of their most important safety net. Together they will lead to a sharp deterioration in America’s balance sheet.

这会带来哪些后果？首先是会深化当初推动特朗普问鼎白宫的社会分裂。特朗普最可能获得通过的两个议程是减税和废除奥巴马医改(Obamacare)。前者会让社会的赢家更加富裕。而后者将让输家丧失他们最重要的安全网。两者叠加，将导致美国资产负债表急剧恶化。

Almost three-quarters of America’s budget now goes to defence, debt interest payments and entitlements such as social security and Medicare. That is set to rise to more than 80 per cent in Mr Trump’s term. The ratio that goes to investment in people, particularly in skills and education, will continue to shrink. America’s budget was already borrowing from tomorrow to pay off yesterday. Mr Trump would convert that into wholesale theft.

如今，美国财政预算的近四分之三拨给了国防、债务利息支付、以及社保和联邦老年医保(Medicare)等应享福利。特朗普任内，这几项占比总和将增至80%以上。对人的投入占比，尤其是对技能和教育的投入，将持续缩减。之前的美国财政预算就已是寅吃卯粮，特朗普将把它变成彻头彻尾的盗窃。

The second fallout is to America’s democratic sanity. It was barely a quarter of a century ago that the US model triumphed over the Soviet Union. That victory was delivered by a mixed economy that invested in America’s middle classes. The Soviet threat brought out the best in enlightened capitalism.

其次是会对美国的民主理智造成冲击。美国模式战胜苏联模式也就刚刚过去了四分之一个世纪。那场胜利要归功于投资美国中产阶级的混合经济。来自苏联的威胁激发出了开明资本主义中最好的那一面。

Mr Trump’s plans epitomise the amnesia that has befallen America’s elites since then. Two decades of rising inequality have brought the US to the edge of democratic tolerance. Mr Trump is now testing its limits.

特朗普的提案象征着美国精英们患上的健忘症。过去20年不断加剧的不平等让美国走到了民主宽容的边缘。现在特朗普要试探它的极限。

In one key sense the US system is working. Mr Trump’s power is being checked and balanced. America’s courts have blocked his plans to discriminate against Muslims. The media and civil society are doing a stellar job of shining a light on Mr Trump’s blunders. A special prosecutor is investigating Mr Trump’s alleged collusion with a foreign power. That is how it was designed to work.

在一个关键层面，美国的制度在起作用。特朗普的权力受到了制衡。美国多家法院阻止了他歧视穆斯林的计划。媒体和公民社会在揭露特朗普的愚蠢错误方面表现出色。一名特别检察官正在调查特朗普与境外势力涉嫌串通一事。这正是美国制度的设计初衷。

In a larger sense, though, the system is failing. Mr Trump’s victory was a sure sign of that. What he plans to do with it would be a greater failing still.

但从广义上讲，美国体制在出现故障。特朗普的胜利就是一个明确的标志。他打算迈出的下一步将酿成更大的失败。