美国共和党缺少里根式候选人
Donald Trump is so fond of the word “winner” that he even applies it to pieces of chicken. Having lunch with the FT a couple of years ago, the mogul-turned-politician pointed his interviewer towards a particularly succulent portion and declared: “That piece looks like a winner.”
唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)特别喜欢说“赢”，他甚至把它用在了鸡肉上。两年前在与英国《金融时报》记者共进午餐时，这位当过地产大亨、后转行从政的名人指着一块特别肥嫩的鸡肉对采访他的记者说：“这一块看上去赢了。”
In Mr Trump’s world, the biggest winner of all is, of course, The Donald himself. His campaign for the Republican nomination has been based around the claim that: “I’m very good at winning. I believe in winning.” It is a remarkably successful pitch. Most opinion polls still show Mr Trump leading the race to be the Republican nominee.
当然，在特朗普的世界里，最有希望赢的那个人是他自己。他争夺共和党总统候选人提名的选战建立在这种说法的基础上：“我非常擅长赢。我相信赢。”这是一段非常成功的宣传说辞。多数民调仍显示，特朗普在共和党提名争夺战中处于领先地位。
All this chest-thumping is revealing. For Mr Trump’s claim to have magical winning properties appeals precisely to those Americans who fear that they and their country are turning into losers. In a typical rhetorical flourish, Mr Trump once argued that America is “going down fast. We can’t do anything right. We’re a laughing stock all over the world.” (The fear that people are laughing at you is, of course, a classic loser’s trait.)
这种拍着胸膛保证的做法很能说明问题，因为特朗普宣称拥有神奇的赢的能力，这种宣传恰恰迎合了那些担心他们自己和他们的国家正变成输家的美国人的心理。特朗普曾以他典型的夸张语气提出，美国正“快速衰落。我们什么都做不对。我们正成为全世界的笑柄”。（担心正在被人嘲笑当然正是一种典型的输家特征。）
All the leading Republican contenders argue that America is going to the dogs, even if they sometimes differ on the details. Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon, who is challenging Mr Trump for the leading position in the polls, has even claimed that “political correctness” means that America is now “very much like Nazi Germany”.
所有领先的共和党参选人都辩称，美国正在走下坡路，尽管他们有时在具体内容上存在分歧。在民调中对特朗普的领先地位构成挑战的神经外科医生本愠森(Ben Carson)甚至宣称，“政治正确性”意味着美国现在“非常像纳粹德国”。
People who vote Republican still tend to be richer than Democrats, so all this despair in Republican ranks is a little surprising. But the US is changing in ways that are clearly making much of the party’s base fearful and insecure.
投票给共和党的选民仍往往比民主党选民更富有，因此共和党各阶层的这种绝望情绪有些让人意外。但美国正在发生的一些变化，显然让共和党很多选民感到担心和不安。
There are four big changes that seem to underpin Republican insecurity: the first is ethnic, the second is social, the third is economic and the fourth is a shift in America’s global position.
有4个重大变化似乎是共和党不安全感的来源：第一是种族变化，第二是社会变化，第三是经济变化，第四是美国全球地位的变化。
Just 39 per cent of white Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and yet the president was easily re-elected, after gaining the support of 90 per cent of minority voters. Whites still make up 72 per cent of the electorate, but America is changing fast. According to the US Census Bureau, by 2020 “more than half the nation’s children will be part of a minority race or ethnic group”, with Hispanics the largest single minority group. By 2043 the US will be “majority-minority”, with whites less than 50 per cent of the population. Mr Trump’s rhetoric appeals to white voters who are scared by this change. He has promised to deport all 11m illegal immigrants in the US and to build a giant wall along the Mexican border.
2012年，只有39%的美国白人投票支持巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)，而在赢得90%少数族裔选民支持后，奥巴马轻松连任。美国白人仍然占到美国选民总数的72%，但美国正迅速发生变化。根据美国人口普查局(US Census Bureau)的数据，到2020年，“超过一半的美国儿童将属于少数种族或族裔”，拉美裔将成为最大单一少数族裔群体。到2043年，美国将变成“少数族裔占人口大多数”的国家，白人所占比例将低于一半。特朗普的言论迎合了那些害怕这种变化的白人选民的心理。他承诺将把美国1100万非法移民全部驱逐出境，并在墨西哥边界砌起一道巨型隔离墙。
A fear of social change in the US has also long animated religious conservatives, who are an important part of the Republican base and are particularly strong supporters of Mr Carson. The religious right thinks that the legalisation of abortion set America on the path to perdition and this cultural pessimism has been further stirred by the legalisation of gay marriage.
长期以来，对美国社会变化的担忧也激起了宗教保守派的热情，他们是共和党选民基础的重要组成部分，是卡森尤为热情的支持者。宗教右翼人士认为，堕胎合法化将让美国走上灭亡之路，同性恋婚姻合法化则进一步激发了这种文化悲观主义论调。
With real wages stagnant for many Americans, including the middle-class, the Republicans have also begun to adopt the rhetoric of economic insecurity. Mr Trump bashes hedge-fund managers. Even Ted Cruz, who is fighting hard to be the most rightwing candidate, has complained that Mr Obama’s economic policies have only benefited the richest 1 per cent of Americans.
由于很多美国人（包括中产阶级）的实际薪资停滞不前，共和党人还开始宣扬经济方面的不安全感。特朗普抨击对冲基金经理。甚至连努力成为最右翼候选人的特德克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)也不满地指出，奥巴马的经济政策只让美国最富有的1%人群受益。
Mixed in with all this domestic insecurity is a pervasive sense that America itself is becoming less powerful. The idea that some erosion in its global strength is inevitable, given the rise of China, gets short shrift in the Republican debate. Instead all setbacks, real and imagined, are attributed to Mr Obama’s “weakness”.
掺杂在这种国内不安全感之中的是一种普遍存在的感觉：美国的实力正在下滑。认为鉴于中国的崛起，美国的全球实力难免受到一定削弱的观点，在共和党的辩论中受到忽略。所有的挫折（不管是真实的还是想象中的）都被归咎于奥巴马的“软弱”。
All the Republican candidates seem to want to show a more aggressive face to the world. Carly Fiorina, who is sometimes touted as a voice of moderation, has said of President Vladimir Putin of Russia: “I wouldn’t talk to him at all... I would do immediately, I would begin rebuilding the Sixth Fleet...I would also conduct military exercises in the Baltic states.” This kind of “strong” talk is so strident that it risks looking weak.
共和党的所有候选人都希望向世界展示出更咄咄逼人的形象。有时被捧为温和派代言人的卡莉菲奥里纳(Carly Fiorina)在谈到俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)时表示：“我根本不会跟他谈……我会马上做什么？我会开始重建第六舰队(Sixth Fleet)……我还会在波罗的海国家开展军事演习。”这类“强硬”言论如此过激，以至于这番话有显得软弱的风险。
The key question for the Republicans is whether it is possible to put together a coalition of “losers” that could actually win. The polls provide some encouragement. A Reuters survey a few days ago found that 59 per cent of Americans think their country is on the “wrong track”, compared to just 24 per cent who think it is heading in the right direction.
共和党的一个关键问题是，能否将“输家”组织成一个能够真正取胜的联盟。民调结果令人鼓舞。路透(Reuters)几天前的一项调查显示，59%的美国人认为美国正走在“错误的轨道”上，只有24%的美国人认为美国正在朝正确的方向前进。
Yet if the Republicans base their strategy on a relentlessly gloomy message about the state of the US, they will be ignoring lessons from their own past. The great hero of the modern Republican party remains the late Ronald Reagan, who managed to combine highly conservative views with sunny optimism. President Reagan also had a self-deprecating good humour that is a million miles away from the dark warnings and shameless bragging of Mr Trump.
然而，如果共和党人将其竞选策略建立在对美国现状传达极其悲观的信号上，他们将忽视他们自己过去的经验。现代共和党的伟大英雄仍是已故的罗纳德里根(Ronald Reagan)，他曾成功地将极度保守的观点与阳光向上的乐观主义结合在一起。里根还具备自嘲的幽默感，特朗普忧郁的警告与无耻的自夸与里根相差十万八千里。
The modern Republican party needs a Reagan-like candidate who can say, “our best days lie ahead” and sound like he means it. In a crowded but unconvincing field, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has done the best job of condemning the Obama years, without sounding angry or unhinged. He is also Hispanic, which may go some way to undoing his party’s massive disadvantage among minority voters. As the Republicans search for a candidate who “looks like a winner”, Senator Rubio increasingly looks like their best bet.
现代共和党需要里根那样的候选人，可以告诉世人“我们最好的日子在前头”，而且听上去不是说着玩的。在这个候选人众多但说服力欠缺的战场上，佛罗里达州参议员马尔科脠比奥(Marco Rubio)在谴责奥巴马执政期方面功勋卓著，而且他听上去不愤怒、也不神经。他也是拉美裔，这或许能够在某种程度上消除共和党在少数族裔选民中的巨大劣势。在共和党寻找“看上去能赢”的候选人之际，参议员鲁比奥看上去越来越像是他们的最佳押注对象。
