社交媒体帮助监测俄罗斯在乌克兰军事行动

WASHINGTON — An unusual investigation using publicly available videos, smartphone photographs and satellite images shows that Russia is continuing to defy the West by conducting protracted military operations inside Ukraine, according to an independent report.

华盛顿——据一份独立报告称，调查表明俄罗斯仍在不顾西方反对，在乌克兰境内开展旷日持久的军事行动。这项异乎寻常的调查使用了公开的视频、智能手机拍摄的照片和卫星图片。

Russia has long dismissed Western allegations that its military has intervened in Ukraine as little more than computer-generated propaganda.

长期以来，俄罗斯一直宣称，西方指责其军队干涉乌克兰事务的说法，无非是电脑生成的宣传材料。

In an attempt to puncture the Russian denials, independent experts have operated like digital Sherlock Holmeses, using Google’s Street View, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, satellite photographs and Russia’s version of Facebook, including social media updates by Russian soldiers. That research was then supplemented by more traditional sources like court documents and local media reports.

为了驳斥俄罗斯的否认，独立专家像数字世界的夏洛克·福尔摩斯(Sherlock Holmes)一样行动了起来，运用了谷歌“街景”(Street View)、YouTube、Instagram、Twitter、卫星图片和俄罗斯版的Facebook，包括俄罗斯士兵在社交媒体上的动态更新。后来，该研究又得到了法庭文件和地方媒体报道等传统消息来源的佐证。

“Independent researchers, using open sources and rigorous methodology, have demonstrated that Russian troops and Russian weapons have been an important part of the fight in Ukraine’s east,” said John E. Herbst, a former American ambassador to Ukraine and one of the authors of the report, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine, which is to be released Thursday by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research center.

“独立研究人员运用公开的消息来源和严谨的方法证明了，在乌克兰东部的战斗中，俄罗斯的军队和武器一直起着重要作用，”这份题为《昭然若揭：普京在乌克兰发动的战争》(Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine)的报告的作者之一，前美国驻乌克兰大使约翰·E·赫布斯特(John E. Herbst)说。该报告将由位于华盛顿的研究机构大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)在周四发布。

While the most recent photograph analyzed in the Atlantic Council report was taken in February, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, said in an interview in Washington on Wednesday that there was ample evidence that Russia still had forces in Ukraine and was sending arms to separatists there.

在大西洋理事会分析的照片中，距今最近的也拍摄于今年2月。但周三在华盛顿接受采访时，北约(NATO)秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg)表示，有大量证据表明俄罗斯仍在乌克兰境内部署有部队，并且还在向那里的分离分子输送武器。

“Russia is present in eastern Ukraine,” Mr. Stoltenberg said. “This is something we have from our own intelligence. But in addition to our own intelligence, it is based on open sources.”

“乌克兰东部仍有俄罗斯人，”斯托尔滕贝格说。“这是从我们自己的情报中得出的结论。但除我们自己的情报外，还有公开消息来源的支持。”

The report comes as European nations are preparing to vote next month on whether to ease or maintain economic sanctions on Russia because of its role in Ukraine.

报告出现之际，正值欧洲国家准备于下月投票表决是要放宽，还是要维持对俄罗斯的经济制裁。俄罗斯正是因为在乌克兰局势中扮演的角色而受到制裁的。

“The way Russian propaganda works, it makes it seem you can’t possibly know the truth,” said Eliot Higgins, a British-based researcher who founded the investigative website and led the effort to analyze the imagery for the Atlantic Council report. “If you try to counter it by doing the same thing, you are just adding to the noise. But you can get to the truth by pointing to the open source data and what’s publicly available.”

“俄罗斯的宣传方式是有效的，仿佛谁都不可能了解真相，”身在英国的研究人员艾略特·希金斯(Eliot Higgins)说。“如果试图以其人之道还治其人之身，只会徒增喧嚣，但可以借助开源数据和公开的材料发现真相。”希金斯是调查网站的创始人，领导了为上述报告分析图像的工作。

Analyzing photographs of large craters in Ukraine and videos of rocket launches on nearby Russian territory, the Atlantic Council report concludes that Russian units have fired across the Ukrainian border. The report finds that craters near the Ukrainian town Panchenkove were the result of Russian multiple rocket fire near Gukovo, Russia, and from a separate site in eastern Ukraine.

通过分析乌克兰境内大型弹坑的照片，以及在不远处的俄罗斯领土上发射火箭弹的视频，大西洋理事会的报告断定，俄罗斯部队隔着边界向乌克兰开火。报告认定，乌克兰小镇庞申科韦(Panchenkove)附近的弹坑，正是俄罗斯多次从该国的古科沃(Gukovo)附近，以及乌克兰东部另一个分离地区发射火箭弹造成的。

“Four videos containing geotags filmed in different locations in and around Gukovo showed the launch of rockets,” the report said. “Cross-border attacks served as cover for a renewed military incursion in the summer of 2014.” Geotags can show where images and videos were created.

“四段带地理位置标签的视频记录了发射火箭弹时的情景，它们都是在古科沃及其周边的不同位置拍摄的，”报告说。“越境攻击是为了掩护2014年夏天重新开始的军事入侵。”地理位置标签能表明照片和视频的拍摄地点。

Drawing on satellite photographs and social media posts by Russian soldiers, the report shows the network of Russian military camps that have sprouted near the Ukrainian border and have been used to send Russian weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine. The camps, the report notes, are in plain view to “anyone with access to Google Earth or Google Maps.”

该报告通过卫星照片及俄罗斯士兵在社交媒体上的帖子展示了，俄罗斯军队在乌克兰边境搭建的营地被用于向乌克兰东部运送俄罗斯武器及士兵。报告指出，“任何能够使用谷歌地球(Google Earth)和谷歌地图(Google Maps)的人都很容易看到”这些营地。

Using YouTube video, the report tracked the movement of Russian convoys, including armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery. In one case, the report notes, a Russian military convoy was filmed moving in August through Staraya Stanitsa, Russia. In February, a YouTube channel associated with Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists showed an armored vehicle from the same convoy in Ukraine.

该报告通过YouTube视频追踪俄罗斯车队的行动，车队中有装甲车和自行火炮。该报告指出，去年8月，俄军的一个车队被拍到穿越俄罗斯的斯特拉亚斯塔尼萨(Staraya Stanitsa)。今年2月，与俄罗斯支持的乌克兰分裂分子相关的一个YouTube频道里，展示了同一个车队中的一辆装甲车部署在乌克兰的画面。

By using satellite imagery and separate photographs of Russian equipment, the report also documents the movement of Russian tanks, SA-22 air-defense systems, Grad rocket launchers and armored reconnaissance vehicles.

通过卫星图像以及其他关于俄罗斯装备的照片，该报告还记录了俄罗斯坦克、SA-22防空系统、格拉德型(Grad)火箭弹发射器和武装侦察车的活动。

American officials have at times used photographs to buttress their claims of Russian intervention. When Secretary of State John Kerry met with President Vladimir V. Putin in Sochi, Russia, this month, Mr. Kerry showed him photographs of Russian air defenses and other weapons in eastern Ukraine to try to persuade him that the United States had clear evidence of Russia’s military role, Western officials said.

美国官员有时会利用照片来支持他们的说法，即俄罗斯进行了干预。西方国家的官员表示，美国国务卿约翰·克里(John Kerry)和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)本月在俄罗斯索契会面时，克里向普京展示了俄罗斯在乌克兰东部部署的防空系统及其他武器的照片，试图向普京阐明，美国掌握了明确证据，可以表明俄罗斯军队在冲突中的角色。

Last year, NATO also issued satellite photographs of Russian artillery positions inside Ukraine to support its allegations of Russian involvement.

去年，北约也曾发布卫星照片，佐证有关俄罗斯参与战争的说法。照片显示了俄罗斯军队在乌克兰境内的火炮阵地。

But the photographs Mr. Kerry showed Mr. Putin have not been made public. Russian officials, who have repeatedly portrayed Ukraine’s new government as the main obstacle to a political settlement, have dismissed NATO’s public evidence as misinformation.

但克里向普京展示的照片没有对外公布。俄罗斯官员称北约公开的证据并不准确。这些官员多次声称，乌克兰的新政府才是阻碍政治解决途径的主要障碍。

Mr. Stoltenberg declined to say how many Russian troops were in Ukraine or positioned near its border. But one Western official, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports, said Russia had moved about nine battalion tactical groups close to its border with Ukraine, and that as many as five additional battalions could be sent there in coming weeks. The number of troops in such units can vary, but a battalion could have about 1,000 troops, creating a potential force of well over 10,000 Russian troops in Ukraine by this summer.

斯托尔滕贝格拒绝说明有多少俄罗斯士兵在乌克兰或在俄乌边境驻扎。但西方国家的一名官员表示，俄罗斯在俄乌边境附近部署了大约九个营的战术编队，可能会在未来几周再派遣多达五个营的兵力。由于讨论的是情报报告，这名官员要求匿名。这种编队的士兵人数不均，一个营可能有1000名士兵，因此截至今年夏天，俄罗斯部署在乌克兰的部队可能会远超1万人。

It is unclear if Russia is preparing for a major offensive to help Ukrainian separatists seize more territory or if it is trying to put pressure on the Ukrainian government to make more constitutional concessions. Either way, the moves by Russia’s military are a violation of the peace agreement that was negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in February, which called for the removal of foreign troops, the pulling back of heavy weapons and the disbanding of “illegal groups.”

目前尚不清楚俄罗斯是准备大举进攻，帮助乌克兰分离分子占据更多领土，还是试图迫使乌克兰政府在宪法上做出更多让步。无论怎样，俄罗斯军队的行动都将违反今年2月在白俄罗斯明斯克谈判达成的和平协议，该协议要求撤除外国士兵，撤回重型武器，解散“非法组织”。

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said in a speech on Wednesday that the conflict over Ukraine is “a test for the West,” and that “President Putin is wagering that he has greater staying power.”

周三，美国副总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)发表讲话时表示，乌克兰冲突是“是对西方国家的考验”，“普京总统认定了他还能掌权很久”。