西方应重审与俄罗斯的关系

Europe’s corridors of power are echoing to the cries of agitated equivocation. Yes, Vladimir Putin has violated sacred international norms and put at risk the security of the European continent. Yes, European leaders must roundly condemn the Russian president for his seizure of Ukrainian territory. And yes, those who believe in international law should do something more than wag a finger. All this is well understood. We must not, however, get carried away.

欧洲的权力走廊回荡着紧张激动而又模棱两可的呼喊声。没错，弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)违反了神圣的国际规范，可能危及欧洲大陆的安全。没错，欧洲各国领导人必须严厉谴责普京侵占乌克兰领土。没错，那些相信国际法的人们除了表示反对之外，还应该采取一些实际的行动。所有这些都完全可以理解。但是我们不能想当然。

In Britain, ministers fret that economic retaliation would jeopardise the City of London’s money laundering operations. Russia, with its reliable multi-billion-dollar supply of dirty money, is a much cherished customer in the capital’s booming property market. In Germany, business leaders implore Angela Merkel, the chancellor, not to threaten lucrative exports or invite interruption of Russian gas supplies. In Rome Matteo Renzi, the new prime minister, is told he must not upset Italy’s powerful energy bosses.

在英国，部长们担心经济报复将会影响伦敦金融城(City of London)的洗钱活动。源源不断供应巨额脏钱的俄罗斯，是伦敦繁荣的房地产市场的“贵宾”客户。在德国，商界领导人恳请总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)不要影响他们有利可图的出口，或者促使俄罗斯切断天然气供应。在罗马，刚刚上台的总理马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)被告知，他不能让意大利有权有势的能源行业领袖的日子难过。

It would be nice to imagine that EU leaders had framed a carefully calibrated response to Mr Putin’s aggression. Blending prudence with toughness, Europe is eschewing draconian sanctions now in order to de-escalate the conflict, but will step up the pressure decisively if Mr Putin refuses to admit Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea. This indeed was the EU summit’s official message. Sad to say, Europe’s caution has been the handmaiden of pusillanimity rather than of diplomatic calculation; and without evidence of serious resolve Mr Putin has no reason to step back.

人们期盼欧盟(EU)领导人针对普京的挑衅框定了一套精心校准的应对措施——结合审慎与强硬，欧洲回避实施严厉制裁，为冲突降温创造条件，但如果普京拒绝承认乌克兰在克里米亚的主权，欧洲就会果断加大压力。这的确是欧盟峰会传递的官方信息。遗憾的是，欧洲的谨慎是出于胆怯，而非外交盘算的结果；而如果看不到坚定决心的证据，普京没有理由退缩。

The EU would have gained a shred of credibility had it followed President Barack Obama’s lead. Visa restrictions and the like have some force when, as is the case with Russia, members of the elite like to travel widely in the course of stashing and spending their billions. At the other end of the spectrum should lie a threat of broad financial sanctions against Russia akin to those applied to Iran.

如果欧盟效仿美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的做法，尚可获得少许可信度。禁发签证之类的措施会产生一些效果，因为俄罗斯的精英人士为了藏匿并消费他们的巨额资金需要大量旅行。回应措施的另一头应该是威胁对俄罗斯采取广泛的金融制裁，类似于对伊朗实施的制裁。

Yet, even if Europeans were to agree eventually to travel some distance along the sanctions road, piecemeal retaliation is only part of the necessary response to Russia’s territorial grab. The seizure of Crimea – and Mr Putin’s threat of a march into eastern Ukraine – requires a fundamental change in mindset. The so-called reset in western ties with Russia needs to be reset, and the boundaries of engagement redrawn.

然而，即便欧洲最终同意实施一些制裁，零敲碎打的报复也只是对俄罗斯侵占领土行为必要回应的一部分。克里米亚被侵占以及普京威胁出兵乌克兰东部，要求我们从根本上转变心态。有必要重新考虑西方与俄罗斯关系的所谓“重启”，重新划定双方接触的界限。

The albeit rather threadbare premise behind the west’s approach has hitherto been that Moscow wants to be included, if with some exceptions, in a rules-based order. That, however much he rails against cruel history, Mr Putin wants to remain a member of the club. Hence Russia’s participation in the G8, its “strategic partnership” with the EU, the Nato-Russia Council in Brussels, membership of the World Trade Organisation and so on.

此前西方的做法有一个颇为陈腐的前提：即便有一些例外情况，但莫斯科总体上希望参与一种基于规则的秩序；无论怎么抱怨无情的历史，普京仍希望留在俱乐部内。因此俄罗斯是8国集团(G8)成员，与欧盟建立“战略合作关系”，参加布鲁塞尔的北约-俄罗斯理事会(Nato-Russia Council)，并加入了世界贸易组织(WTO)等等。

We know now that this is a charade. The march into Ukraine confirmed what should have been recognised some time ago: that Mr Putin’s regime has no respect for international rules and norms. When the game is going against it, its answer is to put tanks on to the chessboard. Rules are for weak westerners, not for resurgent Russia.

我们现在知道，这一切只是假象。出兵乌克兰证实了世人早就应该意识到的一个事实：普京政权根本不尊重国际规则和规范。当棋局对己不利的时候，俄罗斯就会把坦克开上棋盘。规则是针对软弱的西方人、而不是针对重新崛起的俄罗斯的。

Mr Putin’s performance since the weekend – one perfectly mimed by Sergei Lavrov, the weather-beaten cold warrior in charge of the foreign ministry – has been almost as illuminating as the invasion itself. There are no Russian troops in Crimea, Moscow insists, even as its forces (albeit without insignia) appear on our television screens seizing Ukrainian military bases. “We have no control over them”, Mr Lavrov declares, without so much as a blink of the columns of heavily armed soldiers. The idea is cynically simple: night can become day and white become black if only you say so often enough.

普京近日的表现几乎和入侵本身一样说明问题。饱经风霜的冷战专家、俄罗斯外长谢尔盖•拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)完美地亦步亦趋。莫斯科方面坚称，克里米亚没有俄罗斯军队，即便俄罗斯士兵（虽然没有佩戴徽章）夺取乌克兰军事基地的画面传遍世界各地的电视屏幕。拉夫罗夫对那些全副武装、列队行进的军人视若不见，瞪着眼睛宣称：“我们对这些人没有控制。”这其中的理念既简单又讽刺：只要你不断重复，就能把黑的说成白的，白的说成黑的。

This is the strategy of a regime that has taken itself out of the international system. In its own mind Moscow can break any rule it likes and then deny the fact of the transgression. If Mr Putin can be so dismissive of law and treaties in matters of war and peace, why should he respect any of the other rules of the game?

这是一个自绝于国际体系的政权的典型战略。在莫斯科一厢情愿的世界里，它可以随心所欲地踢开任何规则，然后否认违规的事实。如果普京在事关战争与和平的问题上都可以对法律和条约如此不屑一顾，他为何要尊重其他游戏规则呢？

Some wonder whether western governments should boycott the next meeting of the G8 in Sochi. The more apposite question is why on earth they should continue with the pretext that Russia is part of the club. The same can be said of other agreements – on trade, investment and energy – under discussion with Moscow. Why sign accords that one side feels no obligation to respect?

一些人提出，西方各国政府是不是应该抵制原定在索契举行的G8下一次会议？其实更贴切的问题是，他们为什么要继续硬撑俄罗斯仍是西方俱乐部一员这个门面？西方与莫斯科正在谈判的其他协定（涉及贸易、投资和能源）也是如此。为何要签署某一方觉得自己没有义务遵守的协定？

Of course, there will always be business to be done with Mr Putin. Russia is an important power. But the west should shed its illusions in favour of a transactional approach. Interests will sometimes coincide and sometimes collide. There may be bargains to be struck and trade-offs to be made when it suits both sides. But Europe should not imagine the Kremlin leadership is playing on the same board. Oddly enough, hard-nosed realpolitik could over time promote a better relationship.

当然，西方总是会与普京打交道。俄罗斯是一个重要的大国。但西方应该放弃幻想，转而采取一种交易型的方式。西方与俄罗斯的利益有时会重合，有时会发生冲突。当利益一致时，双方可以达成交易，进行礼尚往来。但欧洲不应指望克里姆林宫领导人遵守规则。奇怪的是，长远而言，务实的现实主义政治可能带来更好的关系。

As for Ukraine, the west’s goal should never be to wrench it out of the arms of Moscow. Russia has deep interests, rooted in history, culture and security, in the future of its neighbour. Europe’s objective should be the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and a constitution and a government that properly represents all sections of the population. Economic ties with the west should not exclude a strong partnership with Russia.

就乌克兰来说，西方的目标永远也不应该是帮助其摆脱莫斯科的影响。出于历史、文化和安全方面的原因，乌克兰的未来对俄罗斯有着深层次的利害关系。欧洲的目标应当是恢复乌克兰的领土完整，并建立一个恰当代表乌克兰社会各界的宪法和政府。乌克兰与西方建立经济联系，不应意味着排除与俄罗斯紧密合作。

Mr Putin says he shares this ambition. The problem is that the Russian president also insists that none of his troops is in Crimea.

普京表示他认可这种抱负。问题在于，这位俄罗斯总统还坚称他的军队不在克里米亚。