难敌经济颓势 俄罗斯雨天基金明年或枯竭

After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

经过将近两年的经济衰退之后，据俄罗斯财政部表示，俄罗斯的雨天基金本月已经削减至322亿美元。而2014年9月石油价格刚开始崩溃，雨天基金达917美元。

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that.

更糟糕的是，这种持续下滑状态并没有停止。分析师预计该基金今年年底将削减至150亿美元，不久后将会完全枯竭。

"At the current rate, the fund would be depleted in mid-2017, perhaps a few months later," Ondrej Schneider, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note.

国际金融协会首席经济学家奥德·施耐德在一份报告中写道，“以目前的速度，雨天基金将于2017年年中耗尽，或许再迟几个月。”

The government's reserve fund is designed to cover shortfalls in the national budget at times of low oil and gas revenues.

雨天基金是政府应急备用金，这项政府储备仅仅旨在石油和天然气收入低的情况下国家预算的不足。

Russia's 2016 budget is based on the assumption the country would be able to sell its oil for $50 per barrel.

俄罗斯2016年的预算是基于油价每桶50美元的假设。

But the average oil price in the first eight months of the year was less than $43 per barrel. Oil now makes up just 37% of all government revenues, compared to roughly 50% just two years ago.

但今年过去的前八个月里，平均油价低于43美元/桶。石油收入现在只占俄罗斯政府收入的37%，而两年前这一比率高达约50%。

This slump means the government is having to tap the rainy day fund again and again.

这种衰退意味着俄罗斯政府不得不一遍一遍吸食雨天基金。

The government indicated that once the reserves are depleted, it may have to turn to its welfare fund.

俄罗斯政府表示，一旦雨天基金储备耗尽，政府将不得不转向使用福利基金。

Kremlin says the welfare fund has over $70 billion in it. The fund is not intended to cover budget shortfalls, but rather to finance future pensions and large-scale investment projects.

克里姆林宫表示，福利基金规模超过700亿美元，但该基金并不是用作覆盖预算的不足，而是用作未来养老金以及大规模投资项目。

Schneider said the assets in the fund are less liquid, so it might even be technically impossible for the government to withdraw from it aggressively.

施耐德表示，该基金的资产流动性较差，所以政府甚至在技术上不可能从该基金里积极提现。

Russia's central bank cut interest rates last Friday, to 10% from 10.50%, in a further attempt to kick start the economy.

上周五，俄罗斯央行将利率下降50个基点至10%，这意味着俄罗斯政府进一步尝试启动经济。

The central bank still has $395 billion in international reserves, down from $524 billion in October 2013. The bank burned through more than $140 billion in foreign currency reserves between 2014 and 2015, trying to defend the ruble from collapsing.

俄罗斯央行目前有3950亿美元的国际储备，而2013年10月则有5240亿美元。为了试图防止卢布暴跌，从2014年到2015年，俄罗斯央行已经“烧掉”了超过1400亿美元的外汇储备。

The strategy didn't work and the bank slowly abandoned it. The ruble dropped to the lowest ever in January, when it was trading at 82 rubles per U.S. dollar. It is now trading at 65 rubles per dollar.

但是这一策略并没有奏效，俄罗斯央行也慢慢放弃了。今年1月，卢布降至历史最低，当时，1美元可以换82卢布，现在1美元换65卢布。

The slump in oil prices has hit Russia at the time it was already suffering because of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries over its role in the crisis in Ukraine.

油价暴跌冲击了当时由于乌克兰危机引起的西方国家的经济制裁之下已经困苦不堪的俄罗斯。

They've cut off Russia's most important companies from European financing, banned imports of certain products and froze funds of key officials.

由于俄罗斯在乌克兰政治危机中所扮演的角色，西方国家切断了俄罗斯最重要的公司从欧洲融资，禁止某些产品的进口，并冻结俄罗斯重要官员的资金。

Russia retaliated by imposing import restrictions on European food products. That caused a headache to European farmers, but also pushed Russian inflation to double digit levels.

作为报复，俄罗斯对欧洲食品产品实施进口限制，这让欧洲农民很头疼，但也将俄罗斯通货膨胀推至两位数水平。