今年中国经济将增长6.5% ADB forecasts 6.5% China growth for

China’s economic growth will only reach the lower end of its own projections and its slowdown risks weighing on the rest of Asia, according to a report from the Asian Development Bank.

亚洲开发银行（Asian Development Bank，简称：亚开行）的一份报告显示，今年中国经济增速将只能达到该国自身预测区间的底端，而且中国增长的放缓可能会拖累亚洲其余地区。

The ADB’s flagship Asia Development Outlook 2016 forecast that China’s economy would grow at 6.5 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent next year, compared with Beijing’s expectations of between 6.5 and 7 per cent for 2016 and an average of 6.5 per cent over the next five years.

亚开行旗舰经济报告《2016年亚洲发展展望》(Asia Development Outlook 2016)预计，今年中国经济将增长6.5%，明年增长6.3%。而中国政府对今年经济增速的预期为6.5%到7%，对今后五年平均增速的预期为6.5%。

The slowdown in the region’s biggest economy has knocked as much as 0.3 percentage points off the outlook for developing Asian economies because of the region’s trade and supply chain links, the ADB said.

亚开行表示，考虑到亚洲的贸易和供应链联系，这个亚洲最大经济体的增长减速可能拖累亚洲地区整体经济0.3个百分点。

“[China’s] growth moderation and [the] uneven global recovery are weighing down overall growth in Asia,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB chief economist, who added that in spite of this, the region would still contribute more than 60 per cent of global growth this year.

亚开行首席经济学家魏尚进表示：“中国经济增速放缓和全球复苏的不平衡抑制了亚洲的整体经济增长。”他还补充说，尽管面临这些压力，该地区仍将贡献全球经济增长的60%以上。

the ADB said the country’s wider economic impact was still largely limited to the region, with any negative effects of the country’s slowdown elsewhere in the world offset by gains from lower commodity prices.

亚开行表示，中国产生的更广泛经济影响仍主要局限于亚洲地区，因为中国增长放缓对全球其他地区产生的任何负面影响，都会被大宗商品价格走低带来的好处所抵消。

Should China experience the sort of hard landing that investors feared in January — classed as “unlikely” by the ADB — the global economy would be hit much harder, knocking up to 1.8 percentage points off worldwide growth.

若中国遭遇今年1月投资者所担心的那种硬着陆（亚开行认为这种情景“不太可能”发生），全球经济受到的冲击将会大得多，最多可将全球增速抹去1.8个百分点。

The report also highlighted the complexity of China’s economic relationships in the region as supply chains evolve. While manufacturing powerhouses such as South Korea have lost market share as China has moved up the value chain, others such as Vietnam have benefited from taking over lower-end production from its giant neighbour.

这份报告还强调了随着供应链不断演化，中国在亚洲地区经济关系的复杂程度。随着中国向价值链高端攀爬，韩国等制造业强国的市场份额有所萎缩。与此同时，通过从中国这个庞大邻国手中接过低端生产，越南等国家受益匪浅。

China will continue to struggle as it shifts from investment-led growth to an economy where consumption plays a larger role, the ADB said. Last year services and consumption accounted for 4.6 percentage points of China’s overall growth, up from 3.7 in 2014.

亚开行表示，中国将继续努力从投资拉动型增长模式向消费发挥更大作用的增长模式转型。去年，中国经济整体增速有4.6个百分点来自服务业和消费，比2014年的3.7个百分点要高。

However, the ADB warned that governments around the region, including China, needed to focus far more on boosting productivity.

不过，亚开行警告称，包括中国在内的亚洲各国的政府，需要以比以前大得多的力度聚焦于提高生产率。

“Potential growth depends on both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity,” said Mr Wei. “While altering demographics is not something that can be accomplished within a few years, many developing economies still have tremendous room to use structural reforms to remove distortions in the labour, capital and land markets‎.”

魏尚进表示：“潜在经济增长率取决于劳动力的增加和劳动生产率的提高。虽然不可能在短短几年内改变人口结构，但许多发展中国家仍有巨大空间通过结构性改革消除劳动力、资本和土地市场的扭曲。