土耳其必须寻求共识而非报复

After the rebellion come the reprisals. Only hours after tanks rolled on to the Bosphorus bridges in an attempt to topple Turkey’s government, president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hailing the failed coup as a “gift from God”, as it presented an opportunity to “cleanse” the armed forces. By Sunday, thousands of military personnel were under arrest, thousands of judges sacked and calls to bring back the death penalty were trending on Twitter.

反叛之后就是报复。企图推翻土耳其政府的坦克开上博斯普鲁斯大桥仅数小时之后，土耳其总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)把这次失败的政变称为“真主送来的礼物”，因为它提供了一次“清洗”该国武装力量的机会。到上周日，数千名军人被逮捕，数千名法官被解雇，Twitter上出现了大量要求恢复死刑的呼声。

There can be no justification for the coup attempt, which recalls some of the worst moments in Turkey’s history. In a night of shocking violence, bombs hit parliament and helicopters fired on civilians. More than 260 people were killed and some 1,500 injured in battles between loyal and rebel factions in the police and security forces, and between soldiers and civilians who came out to oppose them.

这次政变企图不可能有开脱的理由，它让人回想起土耳其历史上一些最糟糕的时刻。在一个令人震惊的暴力之夜，炸弹轰击了国会，直升机朝平民开火。警察和安全部队的忠诚派和叛乱派之间发生了战斗，士兵与出来阻止他们的平民发生对抗，逾260人死亡，约1500人受伤。

While previous coups had some public support, few in Turkey now want the armed forces to interfere with elected governments. Leaders of all political parties were swift to condemn the attempt. Senior generals remained loyal. And when Mr Erdogan called on his supporters to come on to the streets, tens of thousands responded.

尽管以前的政变得到过一定程度的民众支持，但如今，土耳其很少有人希望军方干预民选政府。各政党的领袖迅速对政变企图发出谴责。高级将领们仍保持忠诚。当埃尔多安号召他的支持者走上街头时，得到成千上万人的响应。

However, while the government has now regained control, this is far from being an unalloyed victory for Turkish democracy. The uprising underlines the deepening divisions in Turkish society. Mr Erdogan retains the passionate support of around half the electorate, but he has made no concessions to the concerns of other groups. He has driven secularists and liberals into a state of fury and despair, and inflamed ethnic and religious tensions.

然而，尽管政府现在已夺回了控制权，但这对于土耳其民主而言绝不是一次真正的胜利。这次叛乱凸显了土耳其社会中不断加深的分裂。埃尔多安仍得到大约半数选民的热情支持，但他没有对其他群体的关切做出丝毫让步。他把世俗主义者和自由派人士逼入愤怒与绝望，加剧了种族和宗教紧张。

In the absence of effective parliamentary opposition, he has stifled the media, stamped on street protests, and purged rivals from state institutions. He has proved willing to play the nationalist card for electoral gain, reigniting the smouldering conflict in the Kurdish south-east. He is intent on constitutional changes that would still further cement his grip on power.

由于在议会中没有有效的反对派，他压制媒体，镇压街头抗议，清洗国家机构中的对手。事实证明，他愿意为了选举获胜打民族主义牌，重新引燃东南部库尔德人地区逐步酝酿的冲突。他意图修订宪法，使自己得以更牢固地掌握权力。

This is an environment in which frustrations can easily spill over into violence. There is no denying the courage of the people who tackled tanks on Friday night; but there have also been some reports of ugly mob justice.

在当前环境下，挫败感很容易演化成暴力。上周五晚民众上街与坦克交涉时，表现出了不可否认的勇气；但是，也有一些关于丑陋的暴民正义的报道。

It is unclear who masterminded the coup attempt. Mr Erdogan accuses followers of the US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, former allies who have become bitter rivals. But there are other causes of disaffection in the army, including the government’s policy in Syria.

目前尚不清楚是谁策划了这起政变。埃尔多安谴责了身在美国的神职人员费特胡拉•居伦(Fethullah Gulen)的追随者，这些曾经的盟友如今已变成了仇恨的对手。但是，军方的不满也有其他缘由，包括政府对叙利亚的政策。

What is clear is that further repression will worsen the situation. Factional infighting has already weakened Turkey’s police and security forces, which have struggled to counter terrorist attacks by Isis jihadis and Kurdish rebels. The fresh purge could be a damaging distraction. Moreover, Mr Erdogan has already taken the opportunity to strike directly at the constitutional court — the last institution capable of withstanding his edicts.

显而易见的是，进一步的压制将令局势更加恶化。派系内斗已削弱了土耳其的警察和安全部队，他们一直难以对抗“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)圣战分子和库尔德反叛力量。新的清洗可能会造成破坏性的注意力分散。另外，埃尔多安已抓住机会直接攻击宪法法院——最后一个能够反抗他法令的机构。

This has implications beyond Turkey. Ankara is an indispensable ally for the US in Syria and for the EU in handling the migration crisis. Demands for the explusion of Mr Gulen and claims of US involvement in the coup — forcefully denied by Washington — may strain relations and raise fears over US access to the crucial Incirlik air base. Turkish stability in a volatile region matters — and it is under threat.

这将对土耳其以外地区产生影响。土耳其是美国在叙利亚问题上、欧盟在处理移民危机上的一个不可缺少的盟友。土耳其要求引渡居伦以及声称美国卷入政变——美国予以强烈否认——或许会造成关系紧张，并导致美国担忧对因吉尔利克(Incirlik)空军基地的使用。土耳其在一个动荡地区中保持稳定很重要，但该国的稳定受到了威胁。

He would do better by his traumatised country to recognise that democracy is not just about winning elections, but the need to show respect and restraint to opponents and build shared support behind shared national goals — including the primacy of civilian rule.

如果他能承认，民主不仅仅关乎赢得选举，还需要向对手表现出尊重与克制，并与对手一起支持共同的国家目标（包括文官统治的至高无上地位），那么他将为他治下遭受创伤的这个国家带来更多好处。