中国可能试探特朗普底线
Donald Trump is likely to face an early test of will from China, according to Asian security experts, with the region desperate to know how the president-elect of the only superpower will react.
一些亚洲安全专家称，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)很可能在任期的较早阶段面临来自中国的意志考验。目前亚太地区迫切想知道唯一超级大国的当选总统将如何反应。
US allies and adversaries alike are wondering which is the real Mr Trump: the isolationist who says Japan and South Korea should develop nuclear weapons and pay for their security, or the Republican who is surrounding himself with hawkish advisers on China.
美国的盟友和对手都在揣测哪一个才是真正的特朗普：提出日本和韩国应该发展核武器并且为自己的安全买单的那个孤立主义者，还是那个身边都是对华鹰派顾问的共和党人？
What that early test reveals is likely to determine how far the next president will reshape diplomacy in Asia, and whether traditional allies such as Taiwan continue to rely on US protection.
早期考验的结果，很可能决定下一届总统将在重塑亚洲的外交格局方面走多远，以及台湾这样的传统盟友能否继续依靠美国的保护。
“China will probably keep adding pressure on the Trump government to test their limits,” said Ni Lexiong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. “Trump’s election can either make peace in the east Asia region or create mass chaos.”
“中国很可能会不断地对特朗普政府施压，以试探其底线，”上海政法学院教授倪乐雄表示。“特朗普的当选可能给东亚地区带来和平，也可能造成大规模混乱。”
In 2001 the Hainan island incident, when a Chinese fighter collided with a US intelligence-gathering aircraft, applied heavy pressure early on in the presidency of George W Bush.
2001年发生的海南岛事件（一架中国战斗机与一架美军侦察机相撞），在乔治.W.布什(George W Bush)总统任期的早期施加了巨大压力。
Mr Trump has sought to reassure allies in Asia, speaking by telephone with Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, and Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s president. Mr Abe plans to meet the president-elect in New York next week. “His approach to Mr Trump should be very thoughtful,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University.
特朗普已寻求让亚洲盟友放心，他与日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)和韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)都通了电话。安倍计划下周在纽约会晤当选总统。“他对待特朗普的方式应该非常深思熟虑，”京都立命馆大学(Ritsumeikan University)客座教授宫家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)表示。
Mr Trump’s early actions suggest a traditional Republican approach. “The Chinese think they know businessmen,” said Yanmei Xie, China policy analyst for Gavekal Dragonomics. “They know how to massage the ego of a powerful dictatorial strongman, so they think they can handle him. But now his advisers are emerging and they hold very strong anti-Chinese views.”
特朗普的初步作为似乎带有共和党传统做法的意味。“中方认为自己看得懂商人，”龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中国政策分析师谢艳梅（音）表示。“他们明白如何把握一个实权在握的独裁强人的自我，所以他们认为自己能够对付他。但现在他的顾问正在一个接一个浮出水面，而这些人都抱有非常强烈的反华观点。”
Those advisers include: Alexander Gray, who worked for Randy Forbes, a Republican congressman and critic of Beijing; Mike Pillsbury, author of The Hundred-Year Marathon, which argues that China is gearing up for world domination; and Peter Navarro, an academic who directed and produced the film Death By China: Confronting the Dragon.
这些顾问包括：亚历山大.格雷(Alexander Gray)，曾为批评北京方面的共和党众议员兰迪.福布斯(Randy Forbes)工作；白邦瑞(Mike Pillsbury)，《百年马拉松》(The Hundred-Year Marathon)的作者，认为中国正准备主宰世界；以及学者彼得.纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)，他曾经导演和制作电影《致命中国：与龙对抗》(Death By China: Confronting the Dragon)。
If Mr Trump responds robustly to any Chinese test, US allies will be relieved and could even adjust security budgets.
如果特朗普对中国的任何考验做出强有力的回应，美国的盟友将会放心，甚至可能调整安全预算。
“Maybe we have to do a little bit more about our own defence,” said Yoshiji Nogami, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs. “I think Mr Abe is aware of that, although whether it’s acceptable to a majority of people here in Japan I don’t know.”
“也许我们不得不为自己的国防多出一点力，”日本国际问题研究所(Japan Institute of International Affairs)所长野上义二(Yoshiji Nogami)表示。“我认为安倍君知道这一点，至于这是不是大多数日本人都能接受的事情，我就不知道了。”
Until Mr Trump demonstrates his commitment to Asia, however, the region’s anxiety level will remain high. “If Trump doesn’t think it is worth it to clash with Russia over Nato, I shudder to consider how he might feel about a clash with China over Taiwan,” said Nathan Batto at Academia Sinica, a research body in Taipei.
然而，在特朗普展现出对亚洲的承诺之前，该地区的焦虑程度将保持在高位。“如果特朗普认为不值得为了北约(Nato)与俄罗斯发生冲突，我简直不敢想象他对于为了台湾与中国发生冲突会有多少意愿，”台北中央研究院(Academia Sinica)的内森.巴托(Nathan Batto)表示。
The big changes in Asia will come if Mr Trump pursues isolationism. “Given the stresses the US-South Korean alliance seems to be facing, Beijing is going to look for every way to insert itself,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.
如果特朗普一心追求孤立主义，亚洲将会发生巨大变化。“鉴于美韩同盟似乎面临的压力，北京方面将寻找各种方式插一脚，”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)表示。
It would do so, he added, by playing its “strong cards” — such as telling South Koreans not to install the Thaad US missile system — but also by softer means, such as saying: “Look, you can rely on us and you can’t rely on the Americans.”
他补充说，在这方面，中国将会双管齐下，一方面打出“强硬牌”，例如告诉韩方不要让美国部署末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)，另一方面使出比较柔软的手段，比如对韩方说：“瞧，你们可以依靠我们，你们依靠不了美国人。”
If that created a power vacuum, said Ms Xie, “it could create opportunities for China”. Weaker countries could become more accommodating of Beijing, while stronger ones boosted their defence capability. “It could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Asia.”
龙洲经讯的谢艳梅表示，如果这造成了实力真空，“那就可能给中国创造机会”。较弱的国家可能变得对北京方面更加逆来顺受，而较强的国家可能提高其国防能力。“这可能从根本上改变亚洲的实力平衡。”
