IMF将中国GDP增幅预测上调至6.7%

China must speed up economic reforms while it still has a buffer of stable growth, the International Monetary Fund warned in its annual review of the world’s second-largest economy.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在对世界第二大经济体的年度审议中警告，中国必须趁其仍有稳定增长作为缓冲之际，加快经济改革。

“Reform progress needs to accelerate to secure medium-term stability”, and to lower the risk of a “sharp adjustment”, the IMF said in its Article IV report on Wednesday.

IMF周三在其结束对中国的2017年第四条磋商访问时表示：“改革需要取得更快进展，以确保中期稳定，并应对当前经济发展轨迹可能最终导致急剧调整的风险。”

However, the IMF acknowledged that “some near-term risks had receded” as a result of continuing tightening in the financial and housing markets.

然而，由于金融和房地产市场持续收紧，IMF承认“一些近期风险已经消退”。

The IMF forecast China’s gross domestic product to grow 6.7 per cent this year — edging up from a previous estimate of 6.6 per cent — falling to 6.4 per cent between 2018-20, in line with government forecasts.

IMF预测，今年中国国内生产总值(GDP)将增长6.7%（略微高于先前预测的6.6%），之后在2018-20年期间平均每年增长6.4%，与政府预测相符。

However, the IMF warned that steady growth required “deep reforms to transition from the current growth model that relies on credit-fed investment and debt”, according to David Lipton, IMF first deputy managing director.

不过，据IMF第一副总裁大卫·利普顿(David Lipton)表示，IMF警告，稳定的增长要求“开展深入的改革，改变当前依赖由信贷主导的投资和债务的增长模式”。

China’s growth has been largely driven by investment, but this has started to slow because of declines in infrastructure and property investment. Official figures released on Wednesday show that annual growth in infrastructure fixed-asset investment dropped 4.3 percentage points in May, while property investment growth dropped 2.3 percentage points — meaning that growth in overall fixed-asset investment slowed in May to 7.8 per cent year on year.

中国的经济增长在很大程度上受到投资的推动，但由于基础设施和房地产投资下滑，投资增长已开始放缓。周三发布的官方数据显示，5月份基础设施固定资产投资同比增幅下降4.3个百分点，而房地产投资增幅下降2.3个百分点，这意味着5月份固定资产投资总体增长放缓至7.8%。

Beijing has made containing financial risk a priority this year, fearing bubbles in its financial and housing markets. Regulators have clamped down on speculative activity and have reined in institutions from insurance companies to property developers.

北京方面今年将遏制金融风险列为工作重点，担心国内金融和住房市场的泡沫。监管机构开始打击投机活动，约束从保险公司到房地产开发商等各类机构。

“No one knows for sure how long China has to reform. But China needs to do so otherwise the rate of return [on capital] is going to keep dropping,” said Larry Hu, of Macquarie Capital.

“没有人知道中国还有多少时间可推行改革。但中国需要改革，否则资本回报率将继续下滑，”麦格理资本(Macquarie Capital)的胡伟俊(Larry Hu)表示。

Local governments have launched a slew of measures to restrain housing demand in major cities, prompting prices to stall or drop and sales to plummet. Property developers have had their funding channels squeezed.

中国的地方政府出台了一系列措施来抑制主要城市的住房需求，导致房价停滞或下降，销售大幅下滑。房地产开发商的资金渠道受到挤压。

“The recent measures in the financial and property markets don’t count as reforms, but as tightening,” added Mr Hu. “They will for sure lower short-term risks, but the long-term risks are still there.”

“金融和房地产市场近期的措施并不算是改革，而是收紧政策，”胡伟俊补充说。“他们肯定会降低短期风险，但长期风险仍然存在。”

In its continuing crackdown against corruption and risky investment, the government has been unafraid to target high-profile financiers such as the chairman of the insurance company Anbang, who was recently taken into detention. Some of the country’s largest insurance companies have had their issuance of risky products suspended. The new banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” against the country’s vast shadow banking industry.

在打击腐败和高风险投资的持续斗争中，近来中国政府敢于针对知名金融家，比如最近被当局带走的安邦保险(Anbang)董事长。中国一些大保险公司发行的高风险产品已被叫停。银行业监管机构的新负责人对国内庞大的影子银行业发起了“监管风暴”。

The credibility of China’s economic data also needs to be improved to meet the country’s international commitments, the IMF said. Economists worldwide have long criticised China’s official economic statistics for being manipulated and thus giving little guidance for foreign stakeholders.

IMF表示，中国经济数据的可信度也需要得到改善，以跟上中国的国际承诺。世界各地的经济学家长期批评中国的官方经济统计数据受到操纵，因而对境外利益相关者几乎毫无指引意义。

In particular, China’s official growth and employment figures are suspiciously stable, showing barely any sign of the volatility that has affected the country’s economy.

特别是，中国的官方增长和就业数据稳定得可疑，从中几乎看不到影响中国经济的任何波动迹象。

After the province of Liaoning in the country’s north-eastern rust belt admitted it had falsified fiscal data, the central government has accused two more provinces in northern and north-eastern China of faking their economic data earlier this week.

在中国东北“锈带”辽宁省承认财政数据造假后，中央政府本周早些时候指责内蒙古和吉林这两个省份经济数据造假。