韩国大选的特朗普因素

More than 1m South Koreans cast early votes on Thursday ahead of a historic presidential election next week that many hope will return the nation to stability after months of upheaval and unrest.

100余万韩国人在下周历史性的总统选举之前在本周四提前投票。很多人希望，在持续数月的动荡和不安定之后，大选将使国家恢复稳定。

Polls will open across the country on Tuesday for a snap election triggered by the impeachment of Park Geun-hye in March.

全国各地的投票站将在下周二开放，举行因今年3月份朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)遭到弹劾而触发的提前大选。

Leading the pack of candidates is Moon Jae-in, a veteran politician with the country’s Democratic party. Mr Moon has surged in polls following Ms Park’s ouster by tapping into public discontent about corruption and cronyism.

人气领先的候选人是文在寅(Moon Jae-in)，他是共同民主党的资深政治家。朴槿惠被弹劾后，借助公众对腐败和裙带主义的不满，文在寅人气飙升。

In recent weeks, however, the focus of the election has shifted, with North Korea and the new US administration increasingly dominating the debate.

然而，这场大选的焦点在最近几周已经转移，朝鲜和美国特朗普政府日益主导着辩论。

A series of perceived gaffes and mis-steps by US President Donald Trump and his officials have fuelled concerns about Washington’s reliability as an ally and the future of bilateral relations.

在韩国人眼里，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)及其官员接二连三地讲错话，做错事，加剧了韩国对于华盛顿作为盟友的可靠性以及双边关系未来的担忧。

“Now there is another dimension. Trump has handed South Korea one snub after another,” said Hans Schattle, a professor of political science at Yonsei University in Seoul. “South Korea’s voters want a president who can assert the country’s interests.”

“现在有了另一个维度。特朗普一次又一次地不给韩国面子，”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)政治学教授汉斯?舍特勒(Hans Schattle)表示。“韩国选民想要一个能够维护国家利益的总统。”

Washington and Seoul have been treaty allies since the Korean war and many credit the large US military presence in South Korea with deterring North Korean attacks.

自朝鲜战争以来，美韩一直是条约盟国，许多人承认，美国在韩国的大规模军事存在，使朝鲜不敢发动攻击。

However, ties have frayed since Mr Trump assumed office, with South Koreans angry over the nation’s exclusion from discussions on North Korea as well as comments by the US leader that “Korea actually used to be a part of China”.

不过，自特朗普上任以来，美韩关系出现裂缝，韩方对自己被排除在有关朝鲜的讨论之外、对美国领导人有关“朝鲜半岛实际上曾经是中国的一部分”的言论感到愤慨。

A demand by Mr Trump that Seoul also pay $1bn for a US-owned and operated missile shield on the peninsula also prompted a sharp backlash.

特朗普开口要求首尔为美国部署在韩国、由美方拥有和操作的导弹防御系统出资10亿美元，也引发了激烈反弹。

The comments are likely to boost the prospects of Mr Moon, who is notably less gushing about the US alliance than his Conservative party counterparts.

这些言论可能有助于文在寅的选情；相比保守派政党的对手，他对韩美同盟明显没有那么热情。

Observers believe Mr Moon will pursue a rebalancing of South Korea’s international relations. Many members of his party came of age protesting against the US in the 1980s, while some of his top advisers are pushing for a “reset” of relations with China.

观察家们认为，文在寅将试图重新平衡韩国的国际关系。他所在政党的许多成员是在20世纪80年代抗议美国的浪潮中长大的，而他的一些高层顾问正在推动“重启”对华关系。

Ties between Beijing and Seoul have deteriorated in recent months over the deployment of the US missile shield in South Korea’s Seongju county — an installation that could be revisited if Mr Moon is elected.

中韩关系近几个月来出现恶化，症结是美国在韩国星州郡(Seongju)部署反导系统；如果文在寅当选，这一部署可能被重新考虑。

Mr Moon’s critics accuse him of being weak on security and sympathetic to North Korea. Comments that he would push to take back wartime control of the country’s armed forces from the US have also prompted some consternation.

文在寅的批评者指责他在安全问题上立场软弱，还同情朝鲜。他曾表示，他将推动向美国要回对韩军部队的战时指挥权，这些言论也引起了一些惊愕。

“Moon doesn’t seem to prioritise national security,” said Park Hui-rak, a professor at Kookmin university. “[He] has called for the early retrieval of wartime operational control, which could jeopardise the alliance?.?.?.?As South Korea doesn’t have nuclear weapons, it is very risky thing to think about.”

“文在寅似乎没有把国家安全放在首位，”韩国国民大学(Kookmin University)教授朴辉洛(Park Hui-rak)表示。“他呼吁及早收回战时作战控制，这可能危及联盟……由于韩国没有核武器，这么考虑是非常危险的。”

The liberal candidate’s closest competitors for the presidency are centrist Ahn Cheol-soo and conservative Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea party.

与这名自由派总统候选人最接近的对手是中间立场的安哲秀(Ahn Cheol-soo)，以及保守派的自由韩国党的洪准杓(Hong Joon-pyo)。

Despite hailing from the scandal-tainted party of Ms Park, Mr Hong has enjoyed an extraordinary surge in support in recent weeks and is now polling at just under 20 per cent, compared with around 40 per cent for Mr Moon.

尽管来自朴槿惠所在的被丑闻留下污点的政党，但洪准杓在近几周人气激增，目前其支持率略低于20%，而文在寅的支持率在40%上下。

Elderly conservative voters are apparently coalescing around Mr Hong, underscoring the generational divide in South Korea, said Prof Schattle.

延世大学的舍特勒表示，立场保守的老年选民显然倾向于支持洪准杓，突显韩国的代沟。

Mr Hong has raised the hackles of the nation’s youth by vowing to crack down on gay people and saying “washing dishes is women’s work”.

洪准杓誓言打击同性恋者，并称“洗碗是妇女的工作”，这些言论令韩国年轻人不满。

In his memoirs, he describes helping his roommate obtain an aphrodisiac to spike a woman’s drink — something critics have described as an attempted date rape.

在他的回忆录中，他描述了帮助他的室友获得春药并偷偷放入一位女士的饮料；批评者称此举简直是未遂约会强奸。

“[My roommate] said the drug did not work. She woke up and put up strong resistance, biting and scratching him in the face,” Mr Hong wrote in the 2005 publication. He has since said he was just repeating a story he had heard.

“（我的室友）说药没有起作用。她醒了，奋力抵抗，咬破和抓破了他的脸，”洪准杓在2005年出版的回忆录中写道。在那之后，他说他只是在讲述一个自己听说过的故事。

Nevertheless, Prof Schattle said: “For young people, Hong sounds more like a sleazebucket, not a president”.

话虽如此，舍特勒教授表示：“在年轻人来看，洪听起来更像是一个庸俗猥琐的人，而不是一个总统。”