班农离职表明中国成功“遏制特朗普”

Shortly after Donald Trump met Xi Jinping for the first time at his Florida resort, a senior Chinese government official wondered aloud if the US president’s most important domestic political adviser really saw Beijing as an enemy, let alone the enemy.

在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)与习近平在前者位于佛罗里达州的度假别墅首次会面时，中国政府一名高级官员公开质疑称，美国总统最重要的国内政治顾问是否真把北京方面视为敌人、甚至是死敌。

“But Steve Bannon spent years [working] at Goldman Sachs,” the official protested in a conversation with the Financial Times. “He also reads widely and understands history. I don’t think he will be that radical.”

“但史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)在高盛(Goldman Sachs)工作多年，”该官员在与英国《金融时报》(Financial Times) 谈话时质疑道，“他还博览群书，了解历史。我不认为他会那么激进。”

Last week the ruling Chinese Communist party had its answer. In what turned out to be his swansong interview just before he was fired, Mr Bannon said the US was engaged in a winner-take-all “economic war” with China. He added that he fought “every day” with another Goldman Sachs alumnus, White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, and other administration figures who sought a more moderate approach towards dealing with America’s principal geopolitical rival.

上周，执政的中国共产党得到了答案。就在班农被炒掉前不久接受的采访中（结果成了他的告别采访），班农表示美国正在与中国进行一场赢者通吃的“经济战争”。他补充称，他“每天”都在与另一名高盛的前同事、白宫经济顾问加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)以及其他政府官员作斗争，他们寻求以更温和的方式与美国的这个主要地缘政治竞争对手打交道。

Mr Bannon’s abrupt departure is a reminder that Beijing’s strategy for “containing Trump” has so far been a successful one. But it is also a strategy that has benefited greatly from that most precious of commodities — luck.

班农突然离职提醒人们，北京方面“遏制特朗普”的策略目前为止是成功的。但该策略也极大地得益于一样最宝贵的东西——运气。

As it stands, Chinese officials cannot believe their luck, beginning with Mr Trump’s decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement on his first full day in office.

目前，中国官员简直无法相信自己的一连串好运——从特朗普上任第一天就决定抛弃《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，简称TPP）开始。

The TPP would have locked the US and China’s largest Asian trading partners in a formidable economic block from which Beijing was initially excluded. In the likely event that the Chinese government later applied for TPP entry, Washington would have had its best opportunity to pry open the China market since Beijing asked to join the World Trade Organisation in the late 1990s.

TPP将把美国和中国最大的几个亚洲贸易伙伴都锁在一个强大的经济联盟中，而中国被排除在创始成员国之外。中国政府之后可能申请加入TPP，届时，华盛顿方面将得到自上世纪90年代末中国要求加入世贸组织(WTO）以来撬开中国市场的最佳机会。

As one disappointed US diplomat told the FT earlier this year: “We threw away our best leverage over China on day one.”

正如今年早些时候一个失望的美国外交官向英国《金融时报》所说的那样：“我们在第一天就抛弃了我对中国施加影响的最佳工具。”

A People’s Liberation Army general was as gleeful as the diplomat was deflated. In a video of an internal talk that leaked online, Jin Yi’nan called the TPP decision a “grand gift, although [Trump] does not know it”.

中国人民解放军一名将领的开心程度和这名外交官的气馁程度差不多。在流出到网络上的一段内部讲话视频中，金一南称关于TPP的决定是一份“大礼，虽然他（特朗普）不知道”。

In the months that followed Mr Trump’s TPP decision, Chinese officials breathed easier and easier as one threat after another melted away.

在特朗普做出TPP决定后的几个月内，随着威胁一个接一个消失，中国官员的气儿越来越顺了。

The US president did not discard the long-standing “One China” as suggested by his unprecedented December phone call with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen. He did not declare, as promised on the campaign trail, China a “currency manipulator”. And the deadline for a “100-day” trade and investment negotiation begun in Florida passed last month without a meaningful agreement.

这位美国总统并没有像他去年12月与台湾总统蔡英文的首次通话所暗示的那样，摒弃美国长期坚持的“一个中国”立场。他也没有像竞选时承诺的那样，把中国列为“汇率操纵国”。此前在佛罗里达开启的“百日”贸易和投资协商的截止日期已经于上个月悄然过去，没有达成任何有意义的协议。

While Mr Trump’s administration has just launched a probe into alleged Chinese theft of intellectual property, it will probably drag on for at least one year.

尽管特朗普政府刚刚启动了对中国涉嫌窃取知识产权行为的调查，但该过程很可能拖拖拉拉地持续至少一年。

As a result Beijing has achieved its first objective vis-à-vis Mr Trump: to avoid any economic disruptions with its most important trading partner ahead of a Communist party congress this autumn that will mark the start of Mr Xi’s second term in office. The US president has, in other words, thus thrown out his second best piece of leverage over Beijing.

结果北京方面实现了与特朗普有关的第一个目标：在今年秋天中共举行“十九大”——标志着习近平开始第二个任期——之前，避免与最重要的贸易伙伴之间的经济关系受到任何干扰。换句话说，这位美国总统就这样丢掉了他对中国施加影响的次佳工具。

China must still navigate difficult trade and investment negotiations with a US commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, and a US trade representative who both understand that the Chinese Communist party’s unique brand of “state capitalism” poses challenges that the WTO is not equipped to handle.

中国仍然必须搞定与美国商务部长威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)和一名美国贸易代表的艰难贸易和投资谈判。二人都明白，中共独一无二的“国家资本主义”构成的挑战是WTO无法解决的。

In his confirmation hearing in June, USTR Robert Lighthizer demonstrated that he understood the perils of Chinese state capitalism as well as Hillary Clinton did. Mrs Clinton sounded her own alarm on the subject in a series of detailed speeches while secretary of state, and would probably have been laser-focused on the issue had she defeated Mr Trump in last year’s presidential election.

在6月的任职确认听证会上，美国贸易代表罗伯特?莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)证明自己像希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)一样明白中国国家资本主义的危险。希拉里在担任国务卿期间曾在一系列详细的演讲中就该问题发出警告，如果她在去年的总统大选中击败了特朗普，现在她可能已经瞄准这一问题了。

But Beijing’s showdown with Mr Ross and Mr Lighthizer will run for a year at least. Mr Xi can live with that, especially when pitted against an American president whose competence and authority waste further away with each passing week.

但北京方面与罗斯和莱特希泽的较量将持续至少一年。这对习近平来说无所谓，更何况与他对弈的是一位称职度和权威与日俱减的美国总统。